Probabilistic-fuzzy health risk modeling

Health risk analysis of multi-pathway exposure to contaminated water involves the use of mechanistic models that include many uncertain and highly variable parameters. Currently, the uncertainties in these models are treated using statistical approaches. However, not all uncertainties in data or model parameters are due to randomness. Other sources of imprecision that may lead to uncertainty include scarce or incomplete data, measurement error, data obtained from expert judgment, or subjective interpretation of available information. These kinds of uncertainties and also the non-random uncertainty cannot be treated solely by statistical methods. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy set theory together with probability theory to incorporate uncertainties into the health risk analysis. We identify this approach as probabilistic-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA).


Impact of Pesticides as Organic Micro-Pollutants on the Environment and Risks for Mankind
Bozoglu, Faruk (2010-04-29)
Because of health concerns, persistence, and long-term environmental effects, the impact of pesticides on agriculture and public health has been the subject of considerable research. Organophosphorus pesticides exert their acute effects by inhibiting acetylcholinesterase in the nervous system with subsequent accumulation of toxic levels of acetylcholine. Herbicides have widely variable toxicity. In addition to acute toxicity from high exposures, there is concern over possible carcinogenicity as well as othe...
Identification of specific pollutants in Yeşilırmak river basin by using COMMPS and NORMAN prioritization methods
Erciyas, Emre; Yetiş, Ülkü; Department of Environmental Engineering (2018)
According to the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), there is a need for the identification of substances posing a relatively higher risk to the aquatic environment and human health to be included in monitoring and risk assessment studies. Thus, river basin specific pollutants must be identified and regularly monitored by the EU Member States to achieve good ecological water status. This study aims to determine specific pollutants in the Yesilirmak River Basin. The national list of 250 river basin speci...
A new screening index for pesticides leachability to groundwater
DEMİR, A. Ece Akay; Dilek, Filiz Bengü; Yetiş, Ülkü (Elsevier BV, 2019-02-01)
Given the fact that pesticides exist in the aquatic environment at very low concentrations, it is clear that their analysis require expensive analytical techniques. Water authorities in Turkey are in need of assessing the likelihood of pesticide occurrence in groundwater in order to identify minimum number of pesticides that would be included in monitoring programs. To this purpose, the pesticides used in Turkey are ranked and those having higher leaching potentials are identified using pesticide screening ...
Probabilistic Models for Cyclic Straining of Saturated Clean Sands
Çetin, Kemal Önder; Wu, Jiaer; Kammerer, Annie M.; Seed, Raymond B. (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2009-03-01)
A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of postcyclic straining of saturated clean sands is described. Databases consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear and postcyclic volumetric strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles, and "index" test results were used for the development of probabilistically based postcyclic strain correlations. For this purpose, in addition to the compilation of existing data from literature, a s...
Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins
MANTZOUKİ, Evanthia; et. al. (2018-04-01)
Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer ...
Citation Formats
E. Kentel Erdoğan, “Probabilistic-fuzzy health risk modeling,” STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT, pp. 324–338, 2004, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: