Probabilistic day-ahead system marginal price forecasting with ANN for the Turkish electricity market

TOR, Osman Bulent
Güven, Ali Nezih
This study presents a system day-ahead hourly market clearing price forecasting tool for the day-ahead (DA) market and a system DA hourly marginal price forecasting tool for the real-time market of the Turkish electric market (TEM). These forecasting tools are developed based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). A series of historical price data of the TEM are utilized to model and optimize the ANN structure and to develop the ANN-based price forecasting tool. The methodology used to select the optimum ANN architecture provides the minimum daily mean absolute percentage error for both day-ahead market prices in the TEM. Performances of the proposed ANN model and the multiple linear regression model in forecasting the day-ahead hourly market clearing price are compared. The proposed ANN model is modified using volatility analysis and the Bienayme Chebyshev inequality in order to forecast system marginal prices probabilistically within a lower and an upper boundary.


The Relationship Between Energy Commodity Prices and Electricity and Market Index Performances: Evidence from an Emerging Market
Ordu, Beyza Mina; Soytaş, Uğur (2016-01-01)
We investigate the effect of energy commodity price movements on market and electricity index returns in Turkey for the periods before, during, and after the year 2008. Although the Turkish economy is highly reliant on oil, we find that oil price does not lead either electricity or market indexes. This might be attributable to sluggish integration of financial markets in Turkey compared to developed markets. Natural gas price leads electricity index in the pre-2008 period. Its significance is reduced follow...
Hydro-Optimization-Based Medium-Term Price Forecasting Considering Demand and Supply Uncertainty
İLSEVEN, Engin; Göl, Murat (2018-07-01)
This paper proposes an electricity market model of Turkish electricity market for monthly and yearly electricity price forecasting in medium-term by means of supply and demand dynamics formed via a theoretical approach. The electricity market model created within this scope consists of three main components related to electricity demand, supply, and price segments along with hydro optimization submodel, which takes into account the nonlinear relation between supply and price. Electricity price is determined...
A novel methodology for medıum and long-term electricity market modeling
İlseven, Engin; Göl, Murat; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2020-11-15)
In the electricity market, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty in electricity demand, supply, and price due to the uncertainty in parameters such as economic growth, weather conditions, fuel prices, and timing of new investments, etc. These factors in return affect the predictability of the electricity market. This thesis aims to increase the predictability and observability of the electricity market by means of a suitable and validated electricity market modeling methodology designed for medium a...
The impact of crude oil prices on financial market indicators: copula approach
Kayalar, Derya Ezgi; KÜÇÜKÖZMEN, CUMHUR ÇOŞKUN; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe (2017-01-01)
Oil price changes have varying impacts on the financial indicators of global markets and economies. This study aims to explore the dependence structure between crude oil prices and stock market indices, as well as the exchange rates in a number of economies categorized with respect to their status as developing/emerging markets, and oil importer/exporter countries. Dependence structures in this study are evaluated in considerable depth using copula models. The broad time period covered allows the investigat...
Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey
Soytaş, Uğur; Oran, Adil (2011-01-01)
This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, ou...
Citation Formats
E. OZGUNER, O. B. TOR, and A. N. Güven, “Probabilistic day-ahead system marginal price forecasting with ANN for the Turkish electricity market,” TURKISH JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCES, pp. 4923–4935, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: