Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.


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The purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable remediation techniques for an active landslide area in Turkey, using a geological engineering assessment of a re-activated landslide that occurred during the construction of the Artvin-Savsat Junction on the Meydancik Provincial Road, at Km: 12 + 200. For this, the geotechnical parameters of the mobilized geological material-which is colluvium along the sliding surface-were determined by back analyses of the landslide at three geological sections. ...
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Citation Formats
Z. Gülerce, B. Guner, and N. Kaymakcı, “Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul,” NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, pp. 2365–2381, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: