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Drivers of fuel based carbon dioxide emissions: The case of Turkey

In this study, CO2 emissions of Turkish economy are decomposed for 1990-2013 period for five sectors; agriculture, forestry and fishery, manufacturing industries and construction, public electricity and heat production, transport and residential. Additionally, manufacturing and construction sector's CO2 emissions are decomposed for iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, pulp, paper and print, food processing, beverages and tobacco, non-metallic minerals, petroleum refining and other industry for the 2003-2012 period. Both analyses are conducted for five fuel types; liquid, solid, gaseous fuels, biomass and other fuels. In decomposition analysis Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is used. The results of the analysis point out that energy intensity is one of the determining factors behind the change in CO2 emissions, aside from economic activity. The fuel mix component especially for the manufacturing industries and construction sector lowers CO2 emissions during the crisis periods when the economic activity declines. Among GDP sectors, manufacturing industries and construction and public electricity and heat production are the two sectors that dominate the change in CO2 emissions. Additionally, residential and transport sectors' contributions have gained importance during recent years. Among the manufacturing industries and construction, the non-metallic minerals sector has the highest contribution to CO2 emissions followed by the chemicals sector.