Prediction of potential seismic damage using classification and regression trees: a case study on earthquake damage databases from Turkey

2020-09-01
Yerlikaya-Ozkurt, Fatma
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül
Seismic damage estimation is an important key ingredient of seismic loss modeling, risk mitigation and disaster management. It is a problem involving inherent uncertainties and complexities. Thus, it is important to employ robust approaches which will handle the problem accurately. In this study, classification and regression tree approach is applied on damage data sets collected from reinforced concrete frame buildings after major previous earthquakes in Turkey. Four damage states ranging from None to Severe are used, while five structural parameters are employed as damage identifiers. For validation, results of classification analyses are compared against observed damage states. Results in terms of well-known classification performance measures indicate that when the size of the database is larger, the correct classification rates are higher. Performance measures computed for Test data set indicate similar success to that of Train data set. The approach is found to be effective in classifying randomly selected damage data.
NATURAL HAZARDS

Suggestions

Seismic damage assessment based on regional synthetic ground motion dataset: a case study for Erzincan, Turkey
Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Yakut, Ahmet (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2018-07-01)
Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step in risk mitigation in urban regions. Structural damage patterns depend on the regional seismic properties and the local building vulnerability. In this study, a framework for seismic damage estimation is proposed where the local building fragilities are modeled based on a set of simulated ground motions in the region of interest. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are simulated for a set of scenario events using stochastic finite-fault methodolo...
Prediction of potential damage due to severe earthquakes
Yücemen, Mehmet Semih; Pay, AC (2004-01-01)
A statistical model is developed to estimate the seismic vulnerability of low- to mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings. The model is based on a novel utilization of the discriminant analysis technique of multivariate statistics. Number of stories above the ground level (N), soft story index (SSI), overhang ratio (OHR), minimum normalized lateral stiffness index (MNLSTFI), minimum normalized lateral strength index (MNLSI) and normalized redundancy score (NRS) are selected as the basic estimation variables....
The evaluation of public awareness and community preparedness parameter in GIS-based spatial tsunami human vulnerability assessment (MeTHuVA)
Tüfekçi Enginar, Duygu; Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020-11-01)
Catastrophic tsunami events in the past decades reveal the need to improve disaster risk reduction management systems. Although the actions born with this need began in the countries affected by the recent major events, mainly in Indonesia, after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and in Japan, after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, it started to spread to other tsunami-prone coastal areas. The development of risk reduction strategies begins with determining the possible worst-case scenarios for the region and identifyi...
Prediction of input energy spectrum: attenuation models and velocity spectrum scaling
Alici, F. S.; Sucuoğlu, Haluk (Wiley, 2016-10-25)
Recent improvements in performance-based earthquake engineering require realistic description of seismic demands and accurate estimation of supplied capacities in terms of both forces and deformations. Energy based approaches have a significant advantage in performance assessment because excitation and response durations, accordingly energy absorption and dissipation characteristics, are directly considered whereas force and displacement-based procedures are based only on the maximum response parameters. En...
An assessment of the 3 February 2002 Cay (Turkey) earthquake (Mw=6.6): Modeling of ground motions and felt intensity distribution
Can, Gizem; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (2021-11-01)
Estimation of earthquake ground motions is important for several purposes including seismic design, analysis, risk mitigation and disaster management. For regions with insufficient data, simulations become critical, particularly for earthquake engineering applications requiring full ground motion data. In this study, stochastic finite-fault simulation of the 3 February 2002 Cay event is presented at three available stations within epicentral distances less than 200 km. The simulations are initially validate...
Citation Formats
F. Yerlikaya-Ozkurt and A. Askan Gündoğan, “Prediction of potential seismic damage using classification and regression trees: a case study on earthquake damage databases from Turkey,” NATURAL HAZARDS, pp. 3163–3180, 2020, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/38884.