Prediction of potential damage due to severe earthquakes

A statistical model is developed to estimate the seismic vulnerability of low- to mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings. The model is based on a novel utilization of the discriminant analysis technique of multivariate statistics. Number of stories above the ground level (N), soft story index (SSI), overhang ratio (OHR), minimum normalized lateral stiffness index (MNLSTFI), minimum normalized lateral strength index (MNLSI) and normalized redundancy score (NRS) are selected as the basic estimation variables. The earthquake damage data compiled for the 12 November 1999 Duzce earthquake are used to develop a discriminant function in terms of these estimation variables. The discriminant score obtained from the resulting discriminant function is then used to estimate the damage state of buildings ranging from no damage to collapse, with intermediate damage states of light, moderate and severe. Correct classification rates ranging between 62% and 95% obtained for the seismic damage data associated with the recent earthquakes that occurred in Turkey support the predictive ability of the proposed model.


Probabilistic methods for the estimation of potential seismic damage: Application to reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (2010-01-01)
Three probabilistic methods, for the prediction of potential seismic damage to low and mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey, are presented As the first method. "best estimate" damage probability matrices for each seismic zone are developed by combining expert opinion and the damage statistics compiled from the recent earthquakes occurred in Turkey. Second method involves a reliability-based model, which treats the earthquake force and seismic resistance as random variables This model expresses p...
Estimation of earthquake damage probabilities for reinforced concrete buildings
Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (2003-05-13)
Due to uncertainties involved both in the occurrence of earthquakes and in structural response, earthquake damage prediction has to be treated in a probabilistic manner. In this study two statistical methods are presented for the prediction of potential seismic damage to low and mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey. These methods are based on the utilization of damage probability matrices and reliability theory. The damage data compiled during recent earthquakes that occurred in Turkey are used ...
Prediction of potential seismic damage using classification and regression trees: a case study on earthquake damage databases from Turkey
Yerlikaya-Ozkurt, Fatma; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020-09-01)
Seismic damage estimation is an important key ingredient of seismic loss modeling, risk mitigation and disaster management. It is a problem involving inherent uncertainties and complexities. Thus, it is important to employ robust approaches which will handle the problem accurately. In this study, classification and regression tree approach is applied on damage data sets collected from reinforced concrete frame buildings after major previous earthquakes in Turkey. Four damage states ranging from None to Seve...
Predicting seismic damage on concrete gravity dams: a review
Arıcı, Yalın; Soysal, Berat Feyza (2022-01-01)
The seismic assessment of concrete gravity dams is a problem of prediction of cracking and the corresponding consequences. With the widespread use of general-purpose finite element programs, the work in the field has shifted towards quantifying the behaviour in a framework for assessment. The nonlinear analysis and coupling with foundation–reservoir interaction, conversely, is still a challenging task. The modelling approach has significant effects on the analysis results and the assessment framework. The f...
Seismic response and vulnerability assessment of Tunnels: a case study on Bolu Tunnels
Üçer, Serkan; Bakır, Bahadır Sadık; Department of Civil Engineering (2012)
The aim of the study is to develop new analytical fragility curves for the vulnerability assessment of tunnels based on actual damage data of tunnels obtained from past earthquakes. For this purpose, additional important damage data belonging to Bolu Tunnels, Turkey was utilized as a case study. Bolu Tunnels constitute a very interesting case from the earthquake hazard point of view, since two major earthquakes, 17 August 1999 Marmara and 12 November 1999 Düzce, occurred during the construction of the tunne...
Citation Formats
M. S. Yücemen and A. Pay, “Prediction of potential damage due to severe earthquakes,” STRUCTURAL SAFETY, pp. 349–366, 2004, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: