Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Planar fault segments are defined and a composite magnitude distribution model is used for all seismic sources in the region to properly represent the characteristic behavior of the North Anatolian Fault without the need for an additional background zone. Multi-segment ruptures are considered using the rupture model proposed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Events in the earthquake catalogue are attributed to the fault zones and scenario weights are determined by releasing the accumulated seismic energy. The uniform hazard spectra at 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level for different soil conditions (soil and rock) are revealed for specific locations in the region (AdapazarA +/-, Duzce, Gemlik, Izmit, Iznik and Sapanca). Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the selected hazard levels are provided to allow the readers perform site-specific hazard assessment and develop site-specific design spectrum for local site conditions.


Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara and evaluation of Turkish Earthquake Code requirements
Ocak, Recai Soner; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2011)
The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in the Eastern Marmara Region using improved seismic source models and enhanced ground motion prediction models by probabilistic approach. Geometry of the fault zones (length, width, dip angle, segmentation points etc.) is determined by the help of available fault maps and traced source lines on the satellite images. State of the art rupture model proposed by USGS Working Group in 2002 is applied to the source system. Composite reoccurren...
Development of Fragility Curves for Single-Column RC Italian Bridges Using Nonlinear Static Analysis
Perdomo, Camilo; Monteiro, Ricardo; Sucuoğlu, Haluk (Informa UK Limited, 2020-05-07)
The main objective of this study is to assess the accuracy and suitability of Nonlinear Static Procedures (NSPs) in the development of analytical damage fragility curves for seismic risk assessment of large portfolios of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridges. Seven NSP approaches, from widely used single-mode conventional pushover-based approaches to the more rigorous multi-mode conventional or adaptive pushover-based procedures are implemented. By systematically comparing fragility curve estimations in terms of...
Evaluation of Seismic Response Factors for Eccentrically Braced Frames Using FEMA P695 Methodology
KUŞYILMAZ, Ahmet; Topkaya, Cem (SAGE Publications, 2016-02-01)
This paper reports details of a numerical study undertaken to evaluate seismic response factors for steel eccentrically braced frames (EBFs) using the FEMA P695 methodology. Six archetypes were designed by making use of the current U.S. specifications, and their behavior was assessed by making use of nonsimulated collapse models. Results indicate that the current values of response factors result in designs with higher collapse probabilities than expected. Two modifications were developed to bring the colla...
Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey
AKKAR, DEDE SİNAN; et. al. (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2018-08-01)
A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper.
Evaluation of site conditions for the Ankara Basin of Turkey based on seismic site characterization of near-surface geologic materials
Kockar, M. K.; Akgün, Haluk; Rathje, E. M. (Elsevier BV, 2010-01-01)
Regional site conditions relevant for seismic hazard studies can be derived from various geologic, seismologic, and geotechnical sources. In this study, site conditions are derived for the Ankara Basin in Turkey by merging in-situ seismic measurements of dynamic properties, geologic information, and some geotechnical boring information. Field seismic refraction surveys were performed at 259 sites in the project area to classify and characterize Plio-Pleistocene fluvial deposits and Quaternary alluvial and t...
Citation Formats
Z. Gülerce, “Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region,” BULLETIN OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING, pp. 1259–1277, 2013, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: