A new fully probabilistic methodology and a software for assessing uncertainties and managing risks in shale gas projects at any maturity stage

Date

2018-09-01

Author

Tugan, Murat Fatih
Sınayuç, Çağlar

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

196
views

0
downloads

Shale oil and shale gas projects generally have marginal economics, hence should be carefully analyzed from the economic standpoint. Generating an economically recoverable resource (ERR) probability function that shows the full uncertainty range is highly important for such an economic analysis. Furthermore, the net present value (NPV) of the project together with the uncertainties inherent in it should be revealed so that the primary decision of entering a shale oil or shale gas project will be determined. As progressing through the project phases, judicious go/no-go decisions should be given at several decision gates.

Subject Keywords

Fuel Technology, Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/40170

Journal

JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2018.05.001

Collections

Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

A new drilling performance benchmarking: ROP indexing methodology Eren, Tuna; Kök, Mustafa Verşan (Elsevier BV, 2018-04-01) The performance efficiency in drilling oil, gas wells is eventually measured by means of comparing the time versus depth curve. However this is now being questioned, is a well drilled relatively in a shorter time period the most efficient well? Large data are now being acquired while drilling, however not all of the data available is utilized appropriately to get the big picture of the well being drilled. This research study is aiming to introduce a performance comparison methodology based on Rate of Penetr...
Estimation of expected monetary values of selected oil fields Kök, Mustafa Verşan; Akın, Serhat (Informa UK Limited, 2006-07-01) As there is uncertainty in estimates of capital, reserves, and net present value in the petroleum industry; risk analysis is the key point for an oil company. It is easy to make decisions after quantifying the uncertainty with ranges of possible values and associated probabilities. Instead of deterministic models, probabilistic evaluations give a wide range of outcomes for decision making. Monte Carlo Simulation is a tool that presents different scenarios and yields probability and value relationships in re...
Heavy-oil solution gas drive: a laboratory study Akın, Serhat (Elsevier BV, 2002-07-01) When some heavy-oil reservoirs are produced using solution gas drive, they show: (1) higher than expected production rates, (2) low produced gas-oil ratio, and (3) relatively high recovery. The reasons for this behavior are not clear. A series of X-ray computerized-tomography (CT)-monitored, heavy-oil pressure depletion experiments were carried out to examine the core-scale phenomena using high pressure/high temperature equipment. Viscous white mineral oil (mu = 220 cp at 20 degreesC) and 9degrees API heavy...
An experimental study on the CO2-CH4 swap process between gaseous CO2 and CH4 hydrate in porous media Ors, Oytun; Sınayuç, Çağlar (Elsevier BV, 2014-07-01) Recently, exhaustion of primary energy sources and increase in the atmospheric CO2 levels have become two major energy challenges of the world; therefore, utilization of alternative energy sources and avoiding the emission of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere are some of the serious problems of this century that should be addressed immediately. Many alternatives are being assessed to solve or at least to cease the negative effects of these issues.
Estimation of permeability and rock mechanical properties of limestone reservoir rocks under stress conditions by strain gauge Iscan, A. G.; Kök, Mustafa Verşan; Bagci, A. S. (Elsevier BV, 2006-08-01) Petroleum engineering reservoir parameter calculations are generally performed in the absence of the overburden pressure effect. This leads to serious errors in further development of a hydrocarbon-bearing reservoir. Thus, measurements under stress conditions become important vitally. The objective is to correlate the overburden pressure and the permeability to see the overburden pressure effects on the permeability of Turkish southeastern limestone reservoir rock samples. Stress was applied to four represe...

Citation Formats

M. F. Tugan and Ç. Sınayuç, “A new fully probabilistic methodology and a software for assessing uncertainties and managing risks in shale gas projects at any maturity stage,” JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, pp. 107–118, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/40170.