Calibration and evaluation of wavewatch III under extreme conditions in Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Sea Basin

Bingöl, Cem
In this study, performance of WAVEWATCH III under extreme waves in Eastern Mediterranean Sea and Aegean Sea is assessed using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis wind data. Best source term is selected from all five source terms that is available in WAVEWATCH III for representation of wind waves in the region. Calibration of the selected source term is conducted for Aegean Sea and Turkish Coast of Mediterranean Sea. Three new Turkish State Meteorological Service buoys are utilized in the study which were never used for the calibration of extreme events in addition to Buoy 61277, Athos, Lesvos, Mykonos, Santos, Saronic and Skyros buoys from POSEIDON network. Two of these new buoys are located in the Turkish Coast of Mediterranean Sea and these buoys provide insight into wave characteristics in the region for the first time. Calibration for wind-wave input term parameters, swell dissipation parameters and wave-wave interaction parameters is conducted in the Aegean and Turkish Coast of Mediterranean Sea for eight case studies. It has been observed that in some regions which are close to land in Aegean Sea, wind interpolation performed by the model reduced the quality of input data. Four addition storms were modelled with the calibrated model setup. Overall, the calibrated model performs better than default parameterization of WAVEWATCH III, ST4 default source term for those cases where the wind input data underestimates the field conditions. These validation results are in a good agreement with buoy data for Antalya and Silifke Buoys. However, for the Aegean Sea, although the calibrated model setup performs significantly better, further improvement is still required both in wind input data as well as a better understanding of the spatial interpolation of the model.


Calibration and Evaluation of WRF-Hydro Modeling System for Extreme Runoff Simulations: Use of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Data
Kılıçarslan, Berina Mina; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2022-2)
This study investigates the impact of the spatio-temporal accuracy of four different sea surface temperature (SST) datasets on the accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro system to simulate hydrological response during two catastrophic flood events over the Eastern Black Sea (EBS) and the Mediterranean (MED) regions of Turkey. Three daily-updated and high spatial resolution external SST products (GHRSST, Medspiration, and NCEP-SST) and one coarse-resolution and time-invariant SST produc...
Sensitivity and sea surface temperature analyses of WRF model for predicting heavy rainfall events observed in Eastern Black Sea and Mediterranean regions of Turkey
Pilatin, Heves; Yücel, İsmail; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin; Department of Earth System Science (2020-8)
With this thesis it is aimed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on the extreme precipitation events of Mediterranean and Eastern Black Sea regions of Turkey. While the first part of sensitivity analysis was conducted for the physical parameters (microphysics, cumulus and PBL) and the initial boundary conditions, the second part has only focused on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST). After choosing 4 microphysics, 3 cumulus, 2 PBL and 2 input meteo...
Calibration and evaluation of a flood forecasting system: Utility of numerical weather prediction model, data assimilation and satellite-based rainfall
Yücel, İsmail; Yılmaz, Koray Kamil (2015-04-01)
A fully-distributed, multi-physics, multi-scale hydrologic and hydraulic modeling system, WRF-Hydro, is used to assess the potential for skillful flood forecasting based on precipitation inputs derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the EUMETSAT Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimates (MPEs). Similar to past studies it was found that WRF model precipitation forecast errors related to model initial conditions are reduced when the three dimensional atmospheric data assimilation (3DVAR)...
Özyurt Tarakcıoğlu, Gülizar (null; 2019-05-15)
In the previous studies Poseidon Buoy data are used for both calibration and validation forthird generation wave models in Aegean Sea. However, due to spatial resolution limits(caused by huge computational time of wave model), there is problem with the bathymetry.This problem is caused by complex orography of Aegean Sea and existence of islands.Depth of Poseidon buoys are under 20m and it is not possible to obtain these depths forany of Poseidon buoys with a spatial resolution that is applicable for calibra...
Sensitivity of WRF-derived hydrometeorological extremes to sea surface temperatures in regions with complex topography and diverse climate
Pilatin, Heves; Yücel, İsmail; Düzenli, Eren; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2021-12-15)
© 2021 Elsevier B.V.This study investigates the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) describing the lower boundary of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on the extreme weather events that occurred on the Mediterranean (MED) and the Eastern Black Sea (EBS) regions of Turkey. For each region, one extreme event case is selected and characterized as a summer convective system in EBS and as a winter synoptic system in MED region. The SST impact on the WRF model forecasts of these events is accomplis...
Citation Formats
C. Bingöl, “Calibration and evaluation of wavewatch III under extreme conditions in Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Sea Basin,” Thesis (M.S.) -- Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences. Civil Engineering., Middle East Technical University, 2019.