Sensitivity and sea surface temperature analyses of WRF model for predicting heavy rainfall events observed in Eastern Black Sea and Mediterranean regions of Turkey

Pilatin, Heves
With this thesis it is aimed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on the extreme precipitation events of Mediterranean and Eastern Black Sea regions of Turkey. While the first part of sensitivity analysis was conducted for the physical parameters (microphysics, cumulus and PBL) and the initial boundary conditions, the second part has only focused on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST). After choosing 4 microphysics, 3 cumulus, 2 PBL and 2 input meteorological source s options, in total 96 scenarios have been tested through the first part of sensitivity analysis for each region. Among all of the schemes, generally for microphysics Eta / Ferrier (ES) scheme, for cumulus Grell Freitas (GFES) sheme and finally for PBL Mellor Yamada Janjic (MYJ) scheme performed better than the other options in Mediterranean event cases. However, for Eastern Black Sea region, Aeresol Aware Thomspon (AATS) and WRF Single Moment 6 (WSM6) as microphysics, Betts Miller Janjic (BMJ) and GFES as cumulus and MYJ as PBL scheme become prominent. Again, WRF model usually performs better by using the Global Forecasting System (GFS) meteorological input dataset in Mediterranean region whereas it produces more realistic forecasts for Eastern Black Sea, if it uses ERA5 Reanalysis (ERA5, ECMWF) meteorologic data. For SST analysis, three SST data sources were selected to use. Through detailed examination, the Medspiration and NCEP sources were found successful for the prediction of the Mediterranean event cases. In Eastern Black Sea region, the two satellite based sourced datasets (Medspiration and GHRSST) performed better than the other two.


Evaluating the performance of a WRF initial and physics ensemble over Eastern Black Sea and Mediterranean regions in Turkey
Düzenli, Eren; Yücel, İsmail; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (Elsevier BV, 2021-01-15)
The physics- and initial-based ensemble approach for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied for predicting four different extreme precipitation events that occurred in summer and autumn over the two most flood-prone regions of Turkey, namely; the Eastern Black Sea (EBS) and Mediterranean (MED). A total of 48 runs, each of which includes two nested domains, is designed considering four microphysics (MP), three cumulus (CU), two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, and two initial forcing ...
Sensitivity of WRF-derived hydrometeorological extremes to sea surface temperatures in regions with complex topography and diverse climate
Pilatin, Heves; Yücel, İsmail; Düzenli, Eren; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2021-12-15)
© 2021 Elsevier B.V.This study investigates the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) describing the lower boundary of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on the extreme weather events that occurred on the Mediterranean (MED) and the Eastern Black Sea (EBS) regions of Turkey. For each region, one extreme event case is selected and characterized as a summer convective system in EBS and as a winter synoptic system in MED region. The SST impact on the WRF model forecasts of these events is accomplis...
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Citation Formats
H. Pilatin, “Sensitivity and sea surface temperature analyses of WRF model for predicting heavy rainfall events observed in Eastern Black Sea and Mediterranean regions of Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2020.