An Integrated regression-bootstrap sampling scheduling method for probabilistic duration range estimation of construction projects

Download

index.pdf

Date

2019

Author

Barış, Özgür

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

246
views

220
downloads

The estimation of project duration is important in construction projects, since it directly affects the costs and the success of the projects. Schedule risks can be determined along with the duration estimations in order to assess the possibility of delay penalties and additional costs. Therefore, the accuracy of the estimation of project duration range is very crucial in construction industry to assess the schedule risks. This thesis presents an integrated approach of non-parametric bootstrap sampling method and regression analysis in order to determine the project duration ranges with their probabilities for construction projects. This approach combines both the regression and probabilistic methods in order to provide the range estimation of construction project’s duration with its corresponding probability. The non-parametric bootstrap sampling method, when integrated with the regression analysis, has advantages for range estimation purposes when compared to classical simulation methods such as Monte Carlo Simulation method or probabilistic methods such as Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), since it requires no assumptions regarding the probability distributions and correlations of the input data. Moreover, the proposed integrated regression-bootstrap sampling scheduling method is expected to provide more accurate results than the traditional methods due to regression analysis, which is used to take the effecting factors of the productivity into account and non-parametric bootstrap sampling method, which increases the sample size by resampling the original sample without requiring any assumptions of distributions and correlations of the activities. To expose the advantages and accuracy of the new integrated regression-bootstrap sampling scheduling method, the new method is compared with the traditional probabilistic scheduling methods through two case studies. The comparisons reveal that the proposed method presents a practical non-parametric approach that provides adequate project duration range for realistic evaluation of schedule risks of construction projects.

Subject Keywords

Construction projects., Probabilistic Risk Analysis, Bootstrap Method, Regression Analysis, Construction Duration, Range Estimation.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12623761/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/44459

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

A Fuzzy delay assessment tool for construction projects Ghaziani, Aydin; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, M Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2012) It is a known fact that construction projects do not often complete on time due to several reasons related with the unexpected changes in the project conditions, external factors or performance of project participants. Since construction projects are unique and limited information is available at the beginning of the projects, prediction of delays is a difficult task. However, if the delays can be assessed at the early stages, their impacts might be minimized, some of the delays can even be eliminated. This...
Development of an IT-based tool for portfolio assessment and management for construction companies Bilgin, Gözde; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Özorhon Orakçal, Beliz; Department of Civil Engineering (2019) Development in the construction industry has leaded most of the construction companies to undertake more complex projects than before, which are generally executed concurrently. Therefore, project management routines of the companies may not support effective management of multi-projects. Project portfolio management approach has been suggested to meet requirements for coordinating multi-projects to meet strategic objectives under limited resources. Since project portfolio management requires a comprehensiv...
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ACTIVITY-BASED LESSONS LEARNED PROCESS MODEL AND A TOOL TO SUPPORT SCHEDULING DECISIONS IN CONSTRUCTION FIRMS Yılmaz, Anıl; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2021-11) The construction industry still suffers from reaching critical objectives of projects like duration and budget. To deal with this situation researchers and practitioners realized the importance of knowledge management in the construction industry and put their increasing attention on it over the years. Especially, knowledge management utilization in planning and scheduling parts of construction management has made significant efforts to improve to meet projects objectives adequately. However, project knowle...
A Hybrid genetic algorithm for multi mode resource constrained scheduling problem for large size projects Gürel, Mustafa; Sönmez, Rifat; Department of Civil Engineering (2015) Just like in all industries, some of the available resources, in order to finish a project on time, are constrained in construction industry. To be able to finish the project on time has high importance both for the contractor and for the owner. Project scheduling in which resources are limited for a particular time are called as resource constrained project scheduling problems (RCPSP) and occupies a significant place in construction management. Especially for large scale projects, little success has been a...
A Mixed linear integer model for military facility layout optimization problem Ece, Hüseyin Bahadır; Sönmez, Rifat; Atan, S. Tankut; Department of Civil Engineering (2015) The positioning and layout of facilities on a construction site has a significant impact on productivity, costs, and duration of construction projects. The main objective of general construction site layout planning problem is to arrange the temporary facilities such as office buildings, residences, and warehouse in such a way that the construction activities can be performed with minimal costs. The military facility layout planning problem which considers layout of military facilities is similar to the con...

Citation Formats

Ö. Barış, “An Integrated regression-bootstrap sampling scheduling method for probabilistic duration range estimation of construction projects,” Thesis (M.S.) -- Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences. Civil Engineering., Middle East Technical University, 2019.