Ontology for Relating Risk and Vulnerability to Cost Overrun in International Projects

Risk management is about identifying risks, assessing their impacts, and developing mitigation strategies to ensure project success. The difference between the expected and actual project outcomes is usually attributed to risk events and how they are managed throughout the project. Although there are several reference frameworks that explain how risks can be managed in construction projects, a major bottleneck is the lack of a common vocabulary for risk-related concepts. Poor definition of risk and patterns of risk propagation in a project decrease the reliability of risk models that are constructed to simulate project outcomes under different risk occurrence scenarios. This study aims to extend previous studies in risk management by presenting an ontology for relating risk-related concepts to cost overrun. The major idea is that cost overrun depends on causal relations between various risk sources (namely, risk paths) and sources of vulnerability that interfere with these paths. Ontology is used to develop a database system that represents risk event histories of international construction projects and to construct a model for estimation of cost overrun. It will form the basis of a multiagent system that can be used to simulate the negotiation process among project participants about sharing of costs considering the risk allocation clauses in the contract, sources of vulnerability, and causal relations between risk events and their impacts. The ontology is constructed by interaction with Turkish contractors working in international markets and extensive literature review on risk-related concepts. The validation test results provide evidence that the ontology is fairly effective to help Turkish contractors to assess cost overrun by considering sources of vulnerability and risk in international construction projects. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000090. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.


An analytic hierarchy process based model for risk and opportunity assessment of international construction projects
Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (Canadian Science Publishing, 2006-01-01)
Risk assessment of international projects is a complicated task because of the sensitivity of project success related to country specific risks as well as project risks. Decision makers face the difficulty of weighing project opportunities against risks and determining attractiveness of projects while giving bidding decisions. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for risk and opportunity assessment of international projects. The proposed model uses an analytic hierarchy process for calculation ...
A generic risk and vulnerability assessment framework for international construction projects
Özcan, Gülbin; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Department of Civil Engineering (2008)
Project Risk Management (PRM) comprises of identification and assessment, analysis and mitigation of risk factors in order to meet the project objectives. Risk identification and assessment process has the greatest importance as the risk models are constructed based on previously defined risk sources and their interrelations. Although previous studies have concentrated on the relation between risk events and their consequences, the link between them must be modeled by considering the various chains of risk ...
A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study
Yet, Barbaros; Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Luedeling, Eike; Shepherd, Keith (Elsevier BV, 2016-10-01)
Successful implementation of major projects requires careful management of uncertainty and risk. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. The framework uses hybrid and dynamic BNs containing both discrete and continuous variables over mul...
Risk assessment of international construction projects using the analytic network process
Bu-Qammaz, Amani Suliman; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (Canadian Science Publishing, 2009-07-01)
In this study, an analytic network process (ANP), which can handle the interrelations between risk related factors, is proposed as a reliable technique for measuring the level of risk associated with international construction projects. Within this context, ANP is used to derive the relative priorities of risk factors as an input to a decision support tool, which can be utilized during bidding decisions. The decision support tool may help a decision maker to estimate the level of risk so that alternative pr...
Exploring the Relationship between Complexity and Risk in Megaconstruction Projects
Erol, Huseyin; Dikmen, Irem; Atasoy Özcan, Güzide; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2020-12-01)
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.Although complexity and risk are inherent characteristics of megaconstruction projects, existing project management approaches fail to incorporate complexity-based thinking into risk management. Complexity is usually considered as the source of risk events, along with uncertainty. However, prevailing risk management practices are oriented toward only handling the uncertainty. The lack of integration between the complexity and other risk-related concepts leads to un...
Citation Formats
G. Fidan, İ. Dikmen Toker, A. M. Tanyer, and M. T. Birgönül, “Ontology for Relating Risk and Vulnerability to Cost Overrun in International Projects,” JOURNAL OF COMPUTING IN CIVIL ENGINEERING, pp. 302–315, 2011, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/36032.