Effect of Seismic Source Model Parameters on the Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment Results: A Case Study for the North Anatolian Fault Zone

2015-10-01
The inputs to the probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) contain large uncertainties regarding the seismic source model parameters; therefore, results may vary significantly due to subjective judgment and interpretation of the limited data. The objective of this study is to show the effect of seismic source models on the hazard results by quantifying the differences in the design ground motions for different hazard levels at different locations around the North Anatolian fault. Analysis showed the variances in the hazard results obtained by different seismic source models are closely correlated with the location of the site and hazard level. Additionally, sensitivity of the hazard results to the uncertainties involved in each source parameter, especially the source zone boundaries, annual slip rate, maximum and minimum magnitudes, fault width, b-value, and scenario weights are analyzed and presented to provide insight on the relative contribution of source or fault parameters to the PSHA results.
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

Suggestions

Effects of seismic source model parameters on the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment results
Vakilinezhad, Marjan; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2015)
The inputs to the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) contain large uncertainties regarding the seismic source model parameters; therefore, the results may vary significantly due to subjective judgment and interpretation of the limited data. The objective of this study is to show the effect of seismic source model on the hazard results by quantifying the difference in the design ground motions for different risk levels at different locations around an active tectonic structure. Analysis showed that...
Effect of watershed partitioning on hydrologic parameters and estimation of hydrograph of an ungauged basin: a case study in Gokirmak and Kocanaz, Turkey
Kocyigit, Musteyde Baduna; Akay, Huseyin; Yanmaz, Ali Melih (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2017-08-01)
The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of the size of the subbasins of a watershed on the hydrologic parameters and their spatial variability in an estimation of the hydrologic parameters and hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. In this paper, Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, is used to calibrate and cross-validate two flood events occurred in 1998 and then validate four other flood events occurred in 1991, 19...
Effect of thermal induced flexural strain cycles on the low cycle fatigue performance of integral bridge steel H-piles
Karalar, Memduh; Dicleli, Murat (2016-10-01)
Close examination of the field measurement data for integral bridges revealed that the measured cyclic flexural strains in steel H-piles at the abutments due to thermal fluctuations consist of large amplitude, primary small amplitude and secondary small amplitude cycles. The effect of the small amplitude strain cycles on the low cycle fatigue life of these steel H-piles has not been extensively studied yet. Accordingly, to investigate the effect of the small amplitude strain cycles on the low cycle fatigue ...
Effects of supersymmetric CP phases on chargino-pair production via the Drell-Yan process at the CERN LHC
Cankocak, K; Aydemir, A; Sever, Ramazan (American Physical Society (APS), 2004-04-01)
We compute the rates for pp annihilation into chargino pairs via the Drell-Yan process taking into account the effects of supersymmetric soft phases, at a proton-proton collider. In particular, the phase of the mu parameter gains direct accessibility via the production of dissimilar charginos. The phases of the trilinear soft masses do not have a significant effect on the cross sections.
A Model for Vertical-to-Horizontal Response Spectral Ratios for Europe and the Middle East
Bommer, Julian J.; Akkar, Dede Sinan; Kale, Ozkan (2011-08-01)
In the framework of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the preferred approach for obtaining the response spectrum of the vertical component of motion is to scale the horizontal spectrum by vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) spectral ratios. In order to apply these ratios to scenario or conditional mean spectra, the V/H ratios need to be defined as a function of variables such as magnitude, distance, and site classification. A new model for the prediction of V/H ratios for peak ground acceleration and spectral...
Citation Formats
Z. Gülerce, “Effect of Seismic Source Model Parameters on the Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment Results: A Case Study for the North Anatolian Fault Zone,” BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA, pp. 2808–2822, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/45975.