Effects of seismic source model parameters on the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment results

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2015

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Vakilinezhad, Marjan

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The inputs to the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) contain large uncertainties regarding the seismic source model parameters; therefore, the results may vary significantly due to subjective judgment and interpretation of the limited data. The objective of this study is to show the effect of seismic source model on the hazard results by quantifying the difference in the design ground motions for different risk levels at different locations around an active tectonic structure. Analysis showed that the variances in the hazard results obtained by different seismic source models are closely correlated with the location and hazard level. Additionally, sensitivity of the hazard results to the uncertainties involved in each source parameter, especially the source zone boundaries, annual slip rate, maximum and minimum magnitudes, fault width, b-value and scenario weights are analyzed and presented to provide insight on the relative contribution of source or fault parameters to the PSHA results. Finally, design ground motions for other spectral periods obtained by different seismic source models are compared with the Turkish Earthquake Code (TEC, 2007) requirements. The calculated uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for almost all sites is lower than the TEC-2007 design spectrum, except for the near field sites. Results indicated that the difference between the spectra decreases as the distance between the site and source increases.

Subject Keywords

Seismology., Seismometry., Earthquake prediction., Earthquake engineering.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12618692/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/24607

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

M. Vakilinezhad, “Effects of seismic source model parameters on the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment results,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2015.