Back To The Year When It All Started: Local Determinants Of Party Preferences In 2002 Turkish Elections

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2010
Işık, Oğuz
Pınarcıoğlu, M. Melih
İslami eğilimleri olan Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi’nin (AKP) 2002 seçimlerini kazanarak iktidara gelmesi ile birlikte Türkiye siyasetinde çok önemli bir değişim yaşandı. Seçimler Türkiye siyasetini derinden belirleyen “tsunami” etkisi yaratmış olsa da, Türkiye seçim coğrafyasında ortaya çıkan farklılaşmaların ne denli kalıcı olduğunu bir kez daha gözler önüne serdi. Coğrafi ağırlıklandırılmış regresyon olarak bilinen bir teknik yardımıyla bu yazıda, Türkiye’deki eşitsiz seçim coğrafyasının ardında yatan nedenler araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye siyaset sahnesinin iki temel aktörü olan AKP ve CHP’nin oy düzeyini belirleyen yerel etmenler açısından belirgin bir karşıtlık içinde olduklarını ortaya koymaktadır. AKP’nin, geleneksel sağ partilerin tersine, kent yoksulları ile Anadolu’nun hızla gelişen bölgelerinde kendine bir taban bulmuş olmasına karşın, sosyal demokrat CHP büyük ölçüde kentli seçkin kesimlerle kısıtlı kalmış görünmektedir. Bu bulgu, çoğu araştırmacı tarafından Türkiye siyasetinin en belirgin özelliklerinden biri olarak görülen “merkez-çevre” ayrımının yeni bir görüntüsü olarak ele alınmalıdır.

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Citation Formats
O. Işık and M. M. Pınarcıoğlu, “Back To The Year When It All Started: Local Determinants Of Party Preferences In 2002 Turkish Elections,” ODTÜ Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 161–183, 2010, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: http://jfa.arch.metu.edu.tr/archive/0258-5316/2010/cilt27/sayi_1/161-183.pdf.