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Time-variant reliability analysis incorporating multiple deterioration and live load models

Berenji, V. G.
Akgül, Ferhat
Bridge elements deteriorate with time due to exposure to different environmental attacks, distress mechanisms and live loads effects. In order to optimize the time-variant life-cycle costs or to obtain realistic time-variant reliability profiles, however, time-variant load and resistance models are needed. This paper presents a comparison of time-dependent reliability profiles for bridges obtained by using different deterioration (distress mechanisms) and live load models. To calculate the time-variant reliability of a bridge component and/or a system, based on different load and resistance models, a shell algorithm is developed which calls an available First-Order Reliability Method (FORM)-based program as an executable code in its core. In this study, effects of five different resistance degradation models (based on reinforcing corrosion, sulfate attack, diffusion controlled degradation, traffic spray damage and load-carrying capability) and two separate live load models (proposed by Nowak and Sivakumar, respectively) on the reliability profiles of a bridge component are investigated. Effects of different models on time-variant reliability profiles are compared.