A Spatio-Temporal Crime Prediction Model for Crime Prevention

Düzgün, Hafize Şebnem
Polat, Esra
Development of effective crime prevention strategies requires understanding of the spatial/spatio-temporal occurrences of crime events and then predicting the number, place and time of crime events. In this respect, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) provide efficient tools for analyzing the spatial and spatio-temporal crime events. Similarly developing prediction models for criminal and terrorist activities can directly support crime prevention and counter-terrorism planning, respectively. This study presents a spatio-temporal crime prediction model generated by using time series forecasting with a simple spatial disaggregation approach in GIS. The proposed model is implemented for Bahcelievler and Cankaya Merkez Police Precincts' 2003 crime data obtained from Ankara Police Directorate. Although the proposed crime prediction model is developed for urban crimes, it can be adapted for terrorist activities by using appropriate scales in space and time.
NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Counter Terrorism in Culturally and Linguistically Diverse Communities


Using geographic information systems in analysing the pattern of crime incidents and the relationship between landuse and incidents
Akpınar, Ebru; Pınarcıoğlu, Mehmet Melih; Department of Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies (2005)
The location where crime events occur is an important factor in the analysis of crime. It is not only important where a crime incident takes place but also the characteristics of those places and the environment in which incident occurs. Thus, examination of spatial data such as street networks, parcel information, school locations, commercial and residential zoning, is imperative for effective crime analysis, crime prevention and police activities. Using variables, relating to five incident types as burgla...
A Hadoop solution for ballistic image analysis and recognition
Kocakulak, Hakan; Taşkaya Temizel, Tuğba (2011-07-08)
The importance of ballistic applications has been recently recognized due to the increasing crime and terrorism threats and incidents around the world. Ballistic image analysis is one of the application areas which requires immediate response with high precision from large databases. Here, the microscopic markings on cartridge case of a bullet obtained in a crime scene are compared with that of images on ballistic databases for similarity in order to find out whether it is fired from any of the firearms wit...
A study of fear of crime in two districts of Ankara
Çetin, Didem; Mutlu, Kayhan; Department of Sociology (2010)
The purpose of this study is to understand the fear of crime in the society. The studies in the literature, which focus on sociology of crime in general and the fear of crime in particular, were carried out within the social dynamics of other countries, and mostly the western societies. In this sense, it is clear that there is a need to make evaluations that specifically address our society. In this study, it was aimed to achieve a holistic analysis of fear of crime, based on the question “what are the fact...
Exploring crime in a spatial and temporal context
Erdoğan, Aygün; Gedik, Ayşe; Department of City and Regional Planning (2007)
This study explores incidents in a spatial and temporal context to achieve suitable strategies for urban planning and policing in crime prevention/reduction. For this purpose, “space” and “time” related incidents are analyzed through “new crime ecology” theories within the designed “loose-coupled” GIS-based system at “mezo”-“micro” ecological levels in a case area within Ankara Metropolis, in 2000. Its main argument is that incidents display differences in the spatial and/or temporal distribution among plan...
A Study on sparse array configurations for ultra-wideband imaging applications
Çetin, Beyzat Talat; Alatan, Lale; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2018)
The increased number of terror attacks and crimes have grown a demand for enhancing public security systems. In this sense reliable, cost effective, fast and physically non-hazardous imaging systems should be designed. Multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO)arrayswithultra-wideband(UWB)technologyoffersgreatadvantageousfor shortrangeimagingapplicationssuchasconcealedweapondetection(CWD).Inthis thesis, it is aimed to develop a design tool for MIMO array structures to be used in UWB, near-field (NF) imaging applica...
Citation Formats
H. Ş. Düzgün and E. Polat, “A Spatio-Temporal Crime Prediction Model for Crime Prevention,” Antalya, Turkey, 2011, vol. 90, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/57742.