The ARDL approach to cointegration analysis of tourism demand in Turkey with Greece as the substitution destination

Ketenci, Natalya
This paper estimates tourism demand model for Turkey from 13 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States. The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of demand for Turkey’s tourism and to examine cointegration relationships in the considered model, over the period from 1996 to 2006 year on the monthly basis. This paper uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach advocated by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997), which is more appropriate for studies with small samples. From our results we found evidence at the high significance level of a long-run cointegration relationships among the variables. The study shows that the most significant impact on the tourism demand in the long-run as well as in the short-run has income of tourist arrivals. In addition, the applied CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests confirm the stability of the tourism demand model in most of considered countries.


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The year of 1989 was a milestone in re-creation of the European continent and the relations between states of Western and Eastern Europe. After the collapse of Eastern Bloc, namely the end of the Cold War era, the relations were reshaped and there was a convergence of the Western and Eastern sides of the continent to common values, rules and political and economic structures. As a result of these new developments in the continent, the fifth enlargement wave of the European Union occurred. This was a controv...
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This thesis makes a comparative analysis of financial assistances provided to Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) and Turkey by the European Union (EU) prior and pursuant to candidacy. Furthermore, the thesis argues results obtained through comparison of financial assistances provided to CEECs and Turkey by the EU within the framework of integration theories and examines the place of Turkey within the enlargement perspective of the EU by addressing arguments that are dominant in the literature in...
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Citation Formats
N. Ketenci, “The ARDL approach to cointegration analysis of tourism demand in Turkey with Greece as the substitution destination,” ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 363–382, 2009, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: