Türkiye’de İç Borçların İktisadî Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi

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2004-6

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Özgen, Ferhat Başkan
Güloglu, Bülent

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Bu makalede 1988:12-2003:4 döneminde iç borçlarla diger belli başlı makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri sınanmış, ilişkilerin yönü ve büyüklüğü, VAR tekniğiyle belirlenmeye çalışılmıstır. VAR tekniğinden elde edilen etki-tepki fonksiyonları, Monte Carlo simülasyonu kullanılarak iyileştirilmistir. Çalışma sonuçları, iç borçlar üzerinde en önemli değiskenin merkez bankası parası olduğunu göstermektedir. Faiz oranı, döviz kuru, faiz dışı bütçe harcamaları da iç borçlar üzerinde etkili olmakla birlikte, bunların etkileri oldukça düşüktür. Sonuçlar, iç borçlardaki bir şokun, merkez bankası parası üzerinde ters yönlü, güçlü etkiye sahip olduguna işaret etmektedir. Bu durumda kamu borcunun parasallastırılmadığı, iç borçlanma yoluyla finansmanın, para basma yoluyla finansmana ikâme ediliyor oldugu düşünülebilir. Sonuç olarak, iç borçlardaki artışın, eninde sonunda parasallaştırılarak, enflasyon oranında artısa yol açabileceği yönündeki hos olmayan monetarist aritmetik hipotezi, inceleme dönemi için doğrulanamamıştır.

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http://www2.feas.metu.edu.tr/metusd/ojs/index.php/metusd/article/view/39
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/58514

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ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi

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Department of Economics, Article

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Citation Formats

F. B. Özgen and B. Güloglu, “Türkiye’de İç Borçların İktisadî Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi,” ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 93–114, 2004, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: http://www2.feas.metu.edu.tr/metusd/ojs/index.php/metusd/article/view/39.