Evaluation and forecasting of gas consumption by statistical analysis

Gorucu, FB
Gumrah, F
This study includes an approach to understand the factors affecting gas demand and to forecast gas consumption by multivariable regression analysis for the capital city of Ankara, Turkey. The process of the study is developing a statistical model and testing the model for the past years to understand how accurate it is. After obtaining the most reliable model, forecasting the gas consumption for the remaining days of 2002 and the year 2005 is performed. During the project, by the means of economical conditions, two scenarios, optimistic and pessimistic, are developed to get the idea of how the input variables are going to be changed in the following years. The model yields very satisfactory results and the range of gas consumption for the years 2002 and 2005 for the city Ankara is obtained.


Analysis of gas prices for Turkey from 2003-2011
Wilberforce, Kiribaki; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Kalaylıoğlu Akyıldız, Zeynep Işıl; Department of Statistics (2012)
This study aimed to construct a forecasting model for gas prices in Turkey using Univariate time series analysis. The best model was developed after assessing the forecasting performances for both Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ES) model. Firstly, we fitted different combinations of both ARIMA and SARIMA models (from which the best model was chosen) by using the monthly oil prices from January 2003 to December 2011. The ES model was automatically ...
Efficiency analysis of Turkish natural gas distribution companies by using data envelopment analysis method
Erturk, Mehmet; Turut-Asik, Serap (2011-03-01)
This paper analyzes the performance of 38 Turkish natural gas distribution companies by using a non-parametric method, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The results are used to determine the most proper model specification, to detect the important criteria affecting the efficiency levels, and to find the common characteristics of the most inefficient firms. We find that public firms compared to private firms, non-tender firms compared to tender firms, large firms compared to small firms and firms operating i...
Forecasting Turkish real GDP growth in a data-rich environment
Sen Dogan, Bahar; Midilic, Murat (2019-01-01)
This study generates nowcasts and forecasts for the growth rate of the gross domestic product in Turkey using 204 daily financial series with mixed data sampling (MIDAS) framework. The daily financial series include commodity prices, equity indices, exchange rates, and global and domestic corporate risk series. Forecasting exercises are also carried out with the daily factors extracted from separate financial data classes and from the whole dataset. The findings of the study suggest that MIDAS regression mo...
Prediction of Non-Darcy flow effects on fluid flow through porous media based on field data
Alp, Ersen; Akın, Serhat; Department of Chemical Engineering (2012)
The objective of this dissertation is to investigate the non-Darcy flow effects on field base data by considering gas viscosity, gas deviation factor and gas density as variables. To achieve it, different correlations from the literature and field data have been combined to Sawyer-Brown Method, thus a contribution has been achieved. Production history of selected gas field has been implemented to a numerical simulator. To find out non-Darcy effects quantitatively, Darcy flow conditions have also been run in...
Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member
Soytaş, Uğur; Sarı, Ramazan (2009-04-15)
This paper investigates the long run Granger causality relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Turkey, controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor. The most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to Granger cause energy consumption, but the reverse is not true. The lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions, Turkey does not have to forgo economic growth.
Citation Formats
F. Gorucu and F. Gumrah, “Evaluation and forecasting of gas consumption by statistical analysis,” ENERGY SOURCES, pp. 267–276, 2004, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/65835.