Fuzzy Assessment Model to Estimate the Probability of Delay in Turkish Construction Projects

Gunduz, Murat
Nielsen, Yasemin
Ozdemir, Mustafa
The aim of this paper is to propose a decision support tool for contractors before the bidding stage to quantify the probability of delay in construction projects in Turkey by using the relative importance index (RII) method incorporated into fuzzy logic. For this purpose, 83 delay factors were identified, categorized into 9 major groups through a detailed literature review process as well as interviews with experts from the construction industry. The relative importance of these delay factors and groups was quantified by using the relative importance index method. The ranking of the factors and groups was demonstrated according to their level of effect on delay. A delay assessment model was proposed using the fuzzy set theory by taking into account the delay factors characterized in construction projects. The assessment model was developed using a commercial software product. The proposed methodology was tested in a real case study; and the probability of the delay of the project was evaluated by means of the assessment model after the required inputs were entered into the software. The factors and groups that contribute most to the probability of delays were discussed depending on the case study results. The assessment model results were found to be satisfactory. Finally, some recommendations were made in order to minimize and control delays in construction projects.


Quantiative Methodology for Determination of Cost Contingency in International Projects
Sönmez, Rifat; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2007-01-01)
This paper presents a quantitative methodology to determine financial impacts of the risk factors during the bidding stages of international construction projects. Project and country data of 26 construction projects from 21 countries were collected for evaluation of the international risk factors. The factors impacting cost contingency were identified using correlation and regression analysis techniques. The results indicated that four factors had major contributions for explaining the variations in the co...
Hybrid Genetic Algorithm with Simulated Annealing for Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling
BETTEMİR, ÖNDER HALİS; Sönmez, Rifat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2015-09-01)
Resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) is a very important optimization problem in construction project management. Despite the importance of the RCPSP in project scheduling and management, commercial project management software provides very limited capabilities for the RCPSP. In this paper, a hybrid strategy based on genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing is presented for the RCPSP. The strategy aims to integrate parallel search ability of genetic algorithms with fine tuning capabili...
Assessment of criteria - rich rankings for environmental policy making
Yeralan, Sencer; Ozdoglar, Mehmet Rasit; Azizoğlu, Meral (Inderscience Publishers, 2011-12-01)
This paper illustrates the use of mathematical programming techniques to extract more information out of composite indexes (e.g., the EPI-2008) that would assist decision makers. While recognising the qualitative aspects of such decision making, in order to support and guide the policy making process, we develop analytical tools to assist the process. We carefully delineate our models to be limited only to the provable quantitative properties of the available objective data. However, such data are processed...
Integrated framework to investigate value innovations
Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2005-04-01)
A conceptual framework has been developed to investigate value innovations within construction companies. A visual metaphor has been defined to model the innovation system where the elements of the model are objectives, strategies, environmental barriers/drivers, and organizational factors. The major idea is that none of the elements of the model alone can explain the innovative capability, and elements as well as their interrelations should be considered concurrently to investigate how the innovation syste...
Flexibility analysis: a methodology and a case study
Kahyaoglu, Y; Kayaligil, S; Buzacott, JA (Informa UK Limited, 2002-11-10)
A methodology for analysing manufacturing flexibility is proposed. A real-life case is discussed to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The case involves the grinding operations of an engine manufacturer. As an integral part of the methodology, statistical analyses using response surface methodology are carried out. Potential applications of the proposed methodology are discussed. Planning models and flexibility measure used are outlined in the appendices.
Citation Formats
M. Gunduz, Y. Nielsen, and M. Ozdemir, “Fuzzy Assessment Model to Estimate the Probability of Delay in Turkish Construction Projects,” JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT IN ENGINEERING, pp. 0–0, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/66805.