Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs

Date

2015-11-30

Author

Ozturk, Tugba
Ceber, Zeynep Pelin
Turkes, Murat
KURNAZ, MEHMET LEVENT

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

243
views

0
downloads

The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability over the Mediterranean region were studied. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070-2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate model outputs of the World Climate Research Program's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 multi-model dataset were used in this work. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios' outputs were used in future climate model projections. Future surface mean air temperatures of the larger Mediterranean basin increase mostly in summer and least in winter, and precipitation amounts decrease in all seasons at almost all parts of the basin. Future climate signals for air temperature and total precipitation values are much larger than the inter-model standard deviation. Inter-annual temperature variability increases evidently in summer season and decreases in the northern part of the domain in the winter season, while precipitation variability increases in almost all parts of domain. Probability distribution functions are found to be shifted and flattened for future period compared to the reference period. This indicates that the occurrence of frequency and intensity of high temperatures and heavy precipitation events will likely increase in the future period.

Subject Keywords

Atmospheric Science

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/67351

Journal

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4285

Collections

Department of Statistics, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Evaluation of Multiple Satellite-Based Precipitation Products over Complex Topography DERIN, Yagmur; Yılmaz, Koray Kamil (American Meteorological Society, 2014-08-01) This study evaluates the performance of four satellite-based precipitation (SBP) products over the western Black Sea region of Turkey, a region characterized by complex topography that exerts strong controls on the precipitation regime. The four SBP products include the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis version 7 experimental near-real-time product (TMPA-7RT) and post-real-time research-quality product (TMPA-7A), the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique...
Climate change impacts on snowmelt runoff for mountainous transboundary basins in eastern Turkey Yücel, İsmail; Şen, Ömer Lütfi (Wiley, 2015-02-01) This study investigates whether snowmelt runoff for the selected 15 streamflow stations located in the Euphrates, Tigris, Aras, and Coruh basins in eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has shown a consistent hydrologic response to global climatic changes over the past several decades. It also investigates the future runoff changes in these basins. The analysis utilizes streamflow and meteorological data from 1970 to 2010 available within the study area to identify spatial and temporal patterns of trends in the seasona...
Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey Afshar, Mahdı Hesamı ; Tosunoglu, Fatih; Bulut, Burak; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020-08-01) Climate change, one of the major environmental challenges facing mankind, has caused intermittent droughts in many regions resulting in reduced water resources. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the characteristics (occurrence, duration, and severity) of meteorological drought across Ankara, Turkey. To this end, the observed monthly rainfall series from five meteorology stations scattered across Ankara Province as well as dynamically downscaled outputs of three global climate models th...
Extreme value analysis and forecasting of maximum precipitation amounts in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan (Wiley, 2018-12-01) Monthly maximum precipitation amounts for the period 1950-2010 were modelled for seven climatological stations in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey using a distributional and time series analysis approach. First, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was fitted using the location parameter of the GEV distribution as a function of several explanatory variables that affect the maximum precipitation. We quantified the change in extreme precipitation for each location and derived estimates of...
Diagnosing Neglected Soil Moisture Source-Sink Processes via a Thermal Infrared-Based Two-Source Energy Balance Model Hain, Christopher R.; Crow, Wade T.; Anderson, Martha C.; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (American Meteorological Society, 2015-06-01) In recent years, increased attention has been paid to the role of previously neglected water source (e.g., irrigation, direct groundwater extraction, and inland water bodies) and sink (e.g., tile drainage) processes on the surface energy balance. However, efforts to parameterize these processes within land surface models (LSMs) have generally been hampered by a lack of appropriate observational tools for directly observing the impact(s) of such processes on surface energy fluxes. One potential strategy for ...

Citation Formats

T. Ozturk, Z. P. Ceber, M. Turkes, and M. L. KURNAZ, “Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs,” INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, pp. 4276–4292, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/67351.