Climate change impacts on snowmelt runoff for mountainous transboundary basins in eastern Turkey

Yücel, İsmail
Şen, Ömer Lütfi
This study investigates whether snowmelt runoff for the selected 15 streamflow stations located in the Euphrates, Tigris, Aras, and Coruh basins in eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has shown a consistent hydrologic response to global climatic changes over the past several decades. It also investigates the future runoff changes in these basins. The analysis utilizes streamflow and meteorological data from 1970 to 2010 available within the study area to identify spatial and temporal patterns of trends in the seasonality of streamflow, temperature, and precipitation. Results indicate significant temperature increases (average 1.3 degrees C across the stations) over the time period. They also indicate increases in annual precipitation (average 7.5% across the stations) but the increases are not significant, in general. The streamflow timings in the mountainous basins are found to have already shifted to earlier days in the year (9 days on average), and this is a clear indication of earlier spring melting of snowpack due to increasing temperatures in recent years. Eight among fifteen stream gauging stations in the basins show significant time shifts in snowmelt runoff according to statistical trend tests (based on 90% confidence level). A regional climate change simulation based on a high emissions scenario suggests 10-30% declines in the annual surface runoffs of Aras, Euphrates, and Tigris basins and a slight increase (about 4%) in the annual surface runoff of Coruh basin by the end of the present century. It further indicates that the timing of the peak flows will continue to shift earlier (by about 4 weeks over the century) in response to further warming, increasing the fraction of winter runoff while decreasing the fraction of spring runoff in the year in all these basins.


Evaluation of Multiple Satellite-Based Precipitation Products over Complex Topography
DERIN, Yagmur; Yılmaz, Koray Kamil (American Meteorological Society, 2014-08-01)
This study evaluates the performance of four satellite-based precipitation (SBP) products over the western Black Sea region of Turkey, a region characterized by complex topography that exerts strong controls on the precipitation regime. The four SBP products include the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis version 7 experimental near-real-time product (TMPA-7RT) and post-real-time research-quality product (TMPA-7A), the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique...
Extreme value analysis and forecasting of maximum precipitation amounts in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey
Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan (Wiley, 2018-12-01)
Monthly maximum precipitation amounts for the period 1950-2010 were modelled for seven climatological stations in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey using a distributional and time series analysis approach. First, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was fitted using the location parameter of the GEV distribution as a function of several explanatory variables that affect the maximum precipitation. We quantified the change in extreme precipitation for each location and derived estimates of...
Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey
Afshar, Mahdı Hesamı ; Tosunoglu, Fatih; Bulut, Burak; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020-08-01)
Climate change, one of the major environmental challenges facing mankind, has caused intermittent droughts in many regions resulting in reduced water resources. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the characteristics (occurrence, duration, and severity) of meteorological drought across Ankara, Turkey. To this end, the observed monthly rainfall series from five meteorology stations scattered across Ankara Province as well as dynamically downscaled outputs of three global climate models th...
Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs
Ozturk, Tugba; Ceber, Zeynep Pelin; Turkes, Murat; KURNAZ, MEHMET LEVENT (Wiley, 2015-11-30)
The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability over the Mediterranean region were studied. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070-2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate mo...
Multiregional Satellite Precipitation Products Evaluation over Complex Terrain
Derin, Yagmur; Anagnostou, Emmanouil; Berne, Alexis; BORGA, Marco; BOUDEVILLAIN, Brice; BUYTAERT, Wouter; CHANG, Che-Hao; DELRIEU, Guy; HONG, Yang; HSU, Yung Chia; LAVADO-CASIMIRO, Waldo; MANZ, Bastian; MOGES, Semu; NIKOLOPOULOS, Efthymios I.; SAHLU, Dejene; SALERNO, Franco; RODRIGUEZ-SANCHEZ, Juan-Pablo; VERGARA, Humberto J.; Yılmaz, Koray Kamil (American Meteorological Society, 2016-06-01)
An extensive evaluation of nine global-scale high-resolution satellite-based rainfall (SBR) products is performed using aminimumof 6 years (within the period of 2000-13) of reference rainfall data derived from rain gauge networks in nine mountainous regions across the globe. The SBR products are compared to a recently released global reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study areas include the eastern Italian Alps, the Swiss Alps, the western Black Sea ...
Citation Formats
İ. Yücel and Ö. L. Şen, “Climate change impacts on snowmelt runoff for mountainous transboundary basins in eastern Turkey,” INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, pp. 215–228, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: