Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey

2020-08-01
Climate change, one of the major environmental challenges facing mankind, has caused intermittent droughts in many regions resulting in reduced water resources. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the characteristics (occurrence, duration, and severity) of meteorological drought across Ankara, Turkey. To this end, the observed monthly rainfall series from five meteorology stations scattered across Ankara Province as well as dynamically downscaled outputs of three global climate models that run under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios was used to attain the well-known SPI series during the reference period of 1986-2018 and the future period of 2018-2050, respectively. Analyzing drought features in two time periods generally indicated the higher probability of occurrence of drought in the future period. The results showed that the duration of mild droughts may increase, and extreme droughts will occur with longer durations and larger severities. Moreover, joint return period analysis through different copula functions revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same in the near future, while it declines by 12% over extreme droughts in the near future.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

Suggestions

Climate change impacts on snowmelt runoff for mountainous transboundary basins in eastern Turkey
Yücel, İsmail; Şen, Ömer Lütfi (Wiley, 2015-02-01)
This study investigates whether snowmelt runoff for the selected 15 streamflow stations located in the Euphrates, Tigris, Aras, and Coruh basins in eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has shown a consistent hydrologic response to global climatic changes over the past several decades. It also investigates the future runoff changes in these basins. The analysis utilizes streamflow and meteorological data from 1970 to 2010 available within the study area to identify spatial and temporal patterns of trends in the seasona...
Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs
Ozturk, Tugba; Ceber, Zeynep Pelin; Turkes, Murat; KURNAZ, MEHMET LEVENT (Wiley, 2015-11-30)
The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability over the Mediterranean region were studied. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070-2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate mo...
Evaluation of Multiple Satellite-Based Precipitation Products over Complex Topography
DERIN, Yagmur; Yılmaz, Koray Kamil (American Meteorological Society, 2014-08-01)
This study evaluates the performance of four satellite-based precipitation (SBP) products over the western Black Sea region of Turkey, a region characterized by complex topography that exerts strong controls on the precipitation regime. The four SBP products include the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis version 7 experimental near-real-time product (TMPA-7RT) and post-real-time research-quality product (TMPA-7A), the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique...
Climate change impacts on lakes: an integrated ecological perspective based on a multi-faceted approach, with special focus on shallow lakes
Jeppesen, Erik; Meerhoff, Mariana; Davidson, Thomas A.; Trolle, Dennis; Sondergaard, Martin; Lauridsen, Torben L.; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Brucet, Sandra; Volta, Pietro; Gonzalez-Bergonzoni, Ivan; Nielsen, Anders (PAGEPress Publications, 2014-01-01)
Freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are presently seriously threatened by global development and population growth, leading to increases in nutrient inputs and intensification of eutrophication-induced problems in receiving fresh waters, particularly in lakes. Climate change constitutes another threat exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication and species migration and loss. Unequivocal evidence of climate change impacts is still highly fragmented despite the intensive research, in part due to the...
Diagnosing Neglected Soil Moisture Source-Sink Processes via a Thermal Infrared-Based Two-Source Energy Balance Model
Hain, Christopher R.; Crow, Wade T.; Anderson, Martha C.; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (American Meteorological Society, 2015-06-01)
In recent years, increased attention has been paid to the role of previously neglected water source (e.g., irrigation, direct groundwater extraction, and inland water bodies) and sink (e.g., tile drainage) processes on the surface energy balance. However, efforts to parameterize these processes within land surface models (LSMs) have generally been hampered by a lack of appropriate observational tools for directly observing the impact(s) of such processes on surface energy fluxes. One potential strategy for ...
Citation Formats
M. H. Afshar, F. Tosunoglu, B. Bulut, and M. T. Yılmaz, “Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey,” THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, pp. 1045–1055, 2020, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/38880.