Forecasting Turkey's sectoral energy demand

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2013-6

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Oğuz, Mustafa Efe

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This study forecasts the sectoral energy demand of Turkey in the agriculture, industry, transportation, residence and services sectors for 2023 by means of the ARIMA, Vector Autoregressive and Decomposition statistical methods, and their products are then combined to arrived at a composite, or ensemble forecast. Each of these methods has their own merits and compliments each other. Two scenarios are considered; either the use of entire, unedited data (scenario one), or the absence of the last 3 years of the data to remove the effects of the sudden changes observed at most recent years (scenario two). Finally, forecasts are combined and the results are discussed under the terms of current sectoral policies and strategies of Turkey. The overall analysis indicates that the energy demand is expected to increase by 25% in agriculture, 16.9% in industry, 30.6% in residence and services, 20.9% in transportation sector by 2023. The demand in agriculture sector is the lowest and does not exceed the 6000 ktoe level. Transportation sector's energy demand will be around 20000 ktoe, whereas industry sector demand around 36000 ktoe by the year 2023. The residence and services will have a slightly higher. demand on energy at 46000 ktoe.

Subject Keywords

Energy Sectors, Energy Demand, Forecast, Statistical Methods

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/69859

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Northern Cyprus Campus, Thesis

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Citation Formats

M. E. Oğuz, “Forecasting Turkey’s sectoral energy demand,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.