Pedestrian Tsunami Evacuation Time Maps for Southern Coast of Bodrum Peninsula, Turkey

Date

2020-05-06

Author

Çelikbaş, Büşra
Tüfekçi Enginar, Duygu
Doğan, Gözde Güney
Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi
Kolat, Çağıl
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet
Necmioğlu, Öcal
Annunziato, Alessandro
Santını, Marzıa
Bali, Siret

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

438
views

0
downloads

Turkey suffered from devastating earthquakes and faced with a considerable number of tsunamis in its past. Although, tsunamis occurred in Turkey are not catastrophic as the ones in Pacific Ocean, they may still cause substantial damage in highly populated and/or touristic coastal areas. On July 21, 2017 at 22.31 UTC, a strong earthquake in the Gulf of Gokova (Mediterranean Sea) with a magnitude (Mw) of 6.6 (KOERI) was recorded. The earthquake caused a tsunami that affected the southern coast of Bodrum, Turkey and the northern parts of Kos island, Greece. The largest tsunami run-up was about 1.9 m and observed at Gumbet Bay, Bodrum (Dogan et al., 2019). Fortunately, there were no causalities as tsunami occurred at night time when there were few people on the coast, despite summer season. However, if the same event had occurred during daytime, its impact to the coastal localities would be much higher and it would cause panic among more people.After the 2017 Bodrum-Kos tsunami, numerical simulations based on critical worst-case tsunami scenarios are performed with NAMI DANCE numerical model. According to the simulation results, a seismic scenario based on 1956-Amorgos earthquake and a combined scenario of Gokova fault and North Datca landslide scenario which is a possible submarine landslide assumed to be triggered by the seismic mechanism of Gokova scenario, give the maximum inundation distances and flow depth values at Southern coast of Bodrum Peninsula mainly in Central Bodrum town, Gumbet Bay, Bitez Bay, Yahsi Bay and Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays where most of the settlements and touristic facilities are located.In this study, evacuation walk time maps are prepared for the coastal settlements at Southern Coastline of Bodrum Peninsula by using Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool (PEAT) developed by Jones et al. (2014) based on the selected critical scenarios above mentioned. PEAT is a least-cost-distance (LCD) evacuation model that estimates evacuation times throughout hazard zone based on elevation, land cover, walking speed and direction of movement (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). The required data are gathered from international open source databases and data provided by Bodrum Municipality. The resultant pedestrian evacuation maps show time in minutes for pedestrian who aims to reach safety zone from shortest route. According to the maps, longest walk times to the safety are calculated to be 8 minutes for Central Bodrum, 3 minutes for Gumbet Bay, 4 minutes for Bitez Bay, 6 minutes for Yahsi Bay and 5 minutes for Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays. The pedestrian evacuation times are also tested by onsite measurements. The results are compared and presented by discussions. The evacuation maps provide a base for emergency managers, planners and local decision makers during the planning of evacuation routes and preparation of emergency response plans.Acknowledgements: This study is partly supported by Turkey Tsunami Last Mile Project Analyses JRC/IPR/2018/E.1/0013/NC with contract number 936314-IPR-2018.Keywords: Tsunami evacuation, Least cost distance model, Pedestrian evacuation, Walk time maps

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/70215

DOI

https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-714

Collections

Department of Geological Engineering, Conference / Seminar

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Seismic Protection of Museum Collections: Lessons Learned After the 1999 Earthquakes in Turkey Ertürk, Nevra (Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Architecture, 2012-6-1) Turkey has a long history of large earthquakes in three major fault zones that place two-thirds of the country. Following the two major earthquakes that struck the nortwestern part of Turkey in 1999, several attempts have been taken at hospitals, schools or administrative buildings. The two earthquakes prompted museum professionals and policymakers to consider measures to protect museum collections as well as buildings against earthquake. After the 1999 earthquakes, various projects, scientific researches, ...
Patterns in the Turkish reinsurance claim data, 1998-2002: An application of the extreme value theory Başbuğ Erkan, Berna Burçak (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2006-10-01) The devastating 1999 Marmara and Duzce earthquakes led to a significant increase in the earthquake studies in Turkey in geological, engineering and financial aspects. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has a range of applications from stock market changes to natural disasters like floods and hurricanes. Here EVT is fitted to the ordinary and earthquake reinsurance claims of Turkey.
Civil society and the state: Turkey after the earthquake Jalali, R (2002-06-01) On 17 August 1999 Turkey was hit by a massive earthquake. Over 17,000 lives were lost and there was extensive damage to Turkey's heartland This paper examines how various public and private institutions, including state and civil society institutions such as NGOs and the media responded to the needs of earthquake survivors. It documents the extensive involvement of NGOs in the relief efforts immediately after the disaster and examines the impact of such participation on state-civil society relations in the ...
Preliminary seismic vulnerability assessment of existing reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey - Part I: Statistical model based on structural characteristics Ozcebe, G; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih; Aydogan, V; Yakut, Ahmet (2003-05-13) The 1999 earthquakes caused huge damage and economic losses in Turkey. The city of Duzce, hit by the second earthquake of Mw=7.2, suffered widespread damage to many RC buildings. Survey teams conducted post-earthquake evaluations on selected buildings that suffered various degrees of damage. The information collected was analyzed to set up a correlation between the attributes affecting seismic performance and the observed damage. A procedure, developed using a statistical method called discriminant analysis...
Numerical modelling of the 1766 (May) earthquake tsunami scenario along the northern coasts of Marmara Sea, Turkey Vardar, Hande; Alpar, Şaban Bedri; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (null; 2018-04-09) Following the recent 1999-earthquake disaster and its associated tsunami that occurred in the Izmit Gulf, eastern part of the Marmara Sea; much research has been carried out to determine the tsunami potential, as well as their possible effects along the adjacent coast. Based on the available archival data, many tsunamis (e.g. 989, 1343, 1509, 1766, 1894 and 1912) have affected the low-lying coasts, bays, estuaries, straits and possibly coastal lagoons along the northern coast of the Marmara Sea. In the pres...

Citation Formats

B. Çelikbaş et al., “Pedestrian Tsunami Evacuation Time Maps for Southern Coast of Bodrum Peninsula, Turkey,” 2020, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/70215.