Effect of using extreme years in hydrologic model calibration performance

Date

2017-12-15

Author

Göktaş, Recep Kaya
Tezel, Ulaş
Kargı, Pınar Gökçe
Ayvaz, Mustafa Tamer
Tezyapar, İpek
Mesta, Buket
Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

118
views

0
downloads

Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection.

Subject Keywords

Climate variability, Human impacts, Hydrology, System operation and management, Policy sciences

URI

https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/preliminaryview.cgi/Paper294439.html
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/70679

Conference Name

American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2017 Fall Meeting

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL TO STUDY THE IMPORTANCE OF INFRASTRUCTURE FACILITIES ON QUALITY OF PRIMARY EDUCATION SYSTEM IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Pedamallu, Chandra Sekhar; Ozdamar, Linet; Weber, Gerhard Wilhelm; Kropat, Erik (2010-02-04) The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for study the importance of infrastructure facilities on quality of...
Optimal lot-sizing/vehicle-dispatching policies under stochastic lead times and stepwise fixed costs Alp, O; Erkip, NK; Gullu, R (Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), 2003-01-01) We characterize optimal policies of a dynamic lot-sizing/vehicle-dispatching problem under dynamic deterministic demands and stochastic lead times. An essential feature of the problem is the structure of the ordering cost, where a fixed cost is incurred every time a batch is initiated (or a vehicle is hired) regardless of the portion of the batch (or vehicle) utilized. Moreover, for every unit of demand not satisfied on time, holding and backorder costs are incurred. Under mild assumptions we show that the ...
Impact of crossover and decision variable coding forms on the performance of genetic algorithm optimization a case study on pump and treat remediation design GÜNGÖR DEMİRCİ, Gamze; Aksoy, Ayşegül (2008-05-23) Genetic algorithms (GAs) are robust methods applied especially for complex optimization problems. However, selection of some GA parameters may play a vital role on the efficacy of the method. This study investigates the impacts of crossover type and form of coding on the performance of optimization by genetic algorithms. For this purpose, two pump-and-treat remediation design problems were considered with different levels of complexity determined by the number of decision variables. The efficiencies of GA f...
A Control System Architecture for Control of Non-Affine in Control, Open-Loop Unstable Underactuated Systems Marangoz, Alp; Kutay, Ali Türker (2017-07-25) In this paper, a control system architecture for control of non-affine in control, open-loop unstable underactuated system is discussed. Passivization of the unactuated (internal) system dynamics achieved through perturbation of trajectories of the actuated states, which are calculated through adaptive dynamic inversion technique, based on Tikhonov's theorem. Performance of the controller is shown through simulation of two open-loop unstable and locally uncontrollable example problems.
Effect of Seismic Source Model Parameters on the Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment Results: A Case Study for the North Anatolian Fault Zone Gülerce, Zeynep (2015-10-01) The inputs to the probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) contain large uncertainties regarding the seismic source model parameters; therefore, results may vary significantly due to subjective judgment and interpretation of the limited data. The objective of this study is to show the effect of seismic source models on the hazard results by quantifying the differences in the design ground motions for different hazard levels at different locations around the North Anatolian fault. Analysis showed the var...

Citation Formats

R. K. Göktaş et al., “Effect of using extreme years in hydrologic model calibration performance,” presented at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2017 Fall Meeting, New Orleans, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/preliminaryview.cgi/Paper294439.html.