Seismic damage assessment using synthetic ground motions: a case study for Erzincan

Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step for risk mitigation decision-making in urban regions. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active faults as right lateral North Anatolian Fault, left lateral North East Anatolian Fault and left lateral Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of economic losses, physical damage, and large number of fatalities. This is due to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. Therefore, in this study, the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan is carried out considering both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events generated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups that are represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems where the inelastic dynamic structural characteristics of the models are investigated. The response statistics of the structures are evaluated through non-linear time history analysis. Fragility Curves for the classified structural types are derived and discussed. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results seem to have a reasonable match in between.


Seismic damage assessment based on regional synthetic ground motion dataset: a case study for Erzincan, Turkey
Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Yakut, Ahmet (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2018-07-01)
Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step in risk mitigation in urban regions. Structural damage patterns depend on the regional seismic properties and the local building vulnerability. In this study, a framework for seismic damage estimation is proposed where the local building fragilities are modeled based on a set of simulated ground motions in the region of interest. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are simulated for a set of scenario events using stochastic finite-fault methodolo...
Assessment of seismic hazard in the Erzincan (Turkey) region: construction of local velocity models and evaluation of potential ground motions
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Sisman, Fatma Nurten; Erkmen, Cenk (2015-01-01)
The fundamental step in estimation of seismic damage and losses in urban areas is identification of regional potential seismic hazard. The accuracy of seismic analyses depends on the reliability of the local input parameters used in the corresponding hazard and loss models. This paper presents detailed seismic hazard analyses for an earthquake-prone region using locally derived source and site parameters. Main components of this study are construction of local seismic velocity models, probabilistic and dete...
Seismic Damage Assessment in Erzincan (Turkey) utilizing Synthetic Ground Motion Records
Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Yakut, Ahmet (2017-01-09)
Loss estimation studies exercised for seismically active regions generally require fragility analyses to be performed which necessitate the use of ground motion records. These records could be ‘real’, i.e. recorded, acceleration time series or for regions with sparse ground motion data, ‘synthetic’ records consistent with the regional seismicity and produced using alternative simulation techniques. This study mainly concentrates on seismic damage estimation of Erzincan, which is a city on the eastern part o...
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (2018-09-02)
The first step in estimation of seismic losses in urban areas is the assessment of regional seismic hazard. The source and local site parameters determine the accuracy of the hazard model. Using locally derived input parameters in site response modeling and hazard analyses, the earthquake potential of Zeytinburnu region in Istanbul is investigated in detail. In this study, two alternative source models including area and fault (line) sources are considered in the hazard computations. Analyses are init...
Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (1994-03-01)
Demarcation of areal and linear seismic sources involves a certain degree of uncertainty and this should be reflected in the final seismic hazard results. The uncertainty associated with the description of the geographical coordinates of a source zone boundary is modeled by introducing the concept of 'random boundary', where the location of the boundary is assumed to exhibit a spatial bivariate Gaussian distribution. Here the mean vector denotes the best estimate of location and the variance reflects the ma...
Citation Formats
S. Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, A. Askan Gündoğan, M. A. Erberik, and A. Yakut, “Seismic damage assessment using synthetic ground motions: a case study for Erzincan,” presented at the 3rd Turkish Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (14 - 16 Ekim 2015), İzmir, Türkiye, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: