Demarcation of areal and linear seismic sources involves a certain degree of uncertainty and this should be reflected in the final seismic hazard results. The uncertainty associated with the description of the geographical coordinates of a source zone boundary is modeled by introducing the concept of 'random boundary', where the location of the boundary is assumed to exhibit a spatial bivariate Gaussian distribution. Here the mean vector denotes the best estimate of location and the variance reflects the magnitude of location uncertainty, which may be isotropic or may show spatial directivity. The consideration of spatial randomness in the boundaries smooths the seismicity parameters and permits the gradual transitions of these to occur across border zones. Seismic sources modeled as lines can also be attributed random geometrical properties.


Fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the eastern Makran subduction and the Chaman transform fault, Pakistan: Emphasis on the source characterization of megathrust
Shah, Syed Tanvir; Özacar, Atilla Arda; Gülerce, Zeynep (Elsevier BV, 2021-01-01)
Seismic source characterization (SSC) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in regions characterized by subduction megathrust involves a considerable ambiguity. Lack of detailed geologic, seismic, and geodetic data increases the uncertainties. The enigma is enhanced in regions where thin-skinned accretionary prism faults are part of active deformation. In this study, a planar SSC model for seismically active eastern Makran subduction zone, its associated accretionary prism faults and Chaman tra...
Sensitivity of seismic hazard results to alternative seismic source and magnitude-recurrence models: a case study for Jordan
Yilmaz, Nazan; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (2015-07-03)
Influence of different models and assumptions with respect to seismic source modelling and magnitude distribution on seismic hazard results is examined, taking Jordan as a case study. Four alternative models, which are based on different combinations of seismic source models and magnitude-recurrence relationships, are considered. Seismic hazard curves obtained at four different sites in Jordan according to these four models are compared. In order to display the magnitude of spatial variation of peak ground ...
Ground motion prediction equations based on simulated ground motions
Gür, Kader; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Kale, Özkan; Department of Earthquake Studies (2018)
Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are one of the key elements in seismic hazard assessment to estimate ground motion intensity measures by basically taking into account source, path and site effects. Most of the existing predictive models are derived from databases compiled from real (or observed) ground motion data. However, in data-poor regions, a novel practice to develop new GMPEs is to use simulated or hybrid ground motion datasets for performing reliable seismic hazard analysis. Simulations o...
Seismic hazard assessment for Cyprus
Cagnan, Zehra; TANIRCAN, GÜLÜM (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2010-04-01)
In the present study, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was conducted for Cyprus based on several new results: a new comprehensive earthquake catalog, seismic source models based on new research, and new attenuation relationships. Peak ground acceleration distributions obtained for a return period of 475 years for rock conditions indicate high hazard along the southern coastline of Cyprus, where the expected ground motion is between 0.3 and 0.4 g. The rest of the island is characterized by values repr...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara and evaluation of Turkish Earthquake Code requirements
Ocak, Recai Soner; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2011)
The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in the Eastern Marmara Region using improved seismic source models and enhanced ground motion prediction models by probabilistic approach. Geometry of the fault zones (length, width, dip angle, segmentation points etc.) is determined by the help of available fault maps and traced source lines on the satellite images. State of the art rupture model proposed by USGS Working Group in 2002 is applied to the source system. Composite reoccurren...
Citation Formats
M. S. Yücemen, “SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS WITH RANDOMLY LOCATED SOURCES,” NATURAL HAZARDS, pp. 215–233, 1994, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: