Rainfall triggered landslides in unsaturated soils a numerical sensitivity analysis for rainfall threshold

Date

2012-04-27

Author

Ahmadiadli, Mohammad
Huvaj Sarıhan, Nejan
Toker, Nabi Kartal

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

137
views

0
downloads

Catastrophic precipitation-induced landslides have frequently hit villages, towns and roads in Black Sea Region in northern Turkey, causing extensive damage and many fatalities. Due to global climatic changes, the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events are expected to increase. In addition, due to limited available land on level ground, urbanization continue to increase on sloping ground which increases the exposure and elements at risk. Most available methods for predicting rainfall-induced slope instability are based on statistical data of past slope failures and rainfall events. These may often give conservative or unconservative faulty warnings, so a physically-based model that takes into account the mechanism of the problem should be incorporated for more accurate warning system. In this study, main aspects of rainfall triggered landslides, such as infiltration in an unsaturated soil profile, changes in soil suction and shear strength, development of instability in terms of factor of safety and deformations have been studied numerically. The factors/issues that govern this mechanism have been evaluated and a sensitivity analysis is performed using finite element method. We propose a simple 2D numerical approach that is able to predict the evolution of the key factors governing slope stability as a tool to predict the onset of slope failure, with potential benefits for early warning systems. The effect of antecedent rainfall, and different rainfall intensity-duration schemes (short duration intense rainfall, prolonged low intensity rainfall etc.) are considered in evaluating the threshold critical rainfall that may trigger landslides. The approach is calibrated through a well-documented case history, for which the results will be presented in terms of soil suction, deformation and factor of safety versus time and predicted triggering rainfall. The proposed method can be a first-step towards an integrated early warning system for rainfall triggered landslides that considers the physical mechanism of the problem.

URI

http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2012/EGU2012-5378.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/75769

Conference Name

General Assembly 2012 of the European Geosciences Union, (22 - 27 April 2012)

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Fault Process and Broadband Ground-Motion Simulations of the 23 October 2011 Van (Eastern Turkey) Earthquake Gallovic, F.; Ameri, G.; Zahradnik, J.; Jansky, J.; Plicka, V.; Sokos, E.; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Pakzad, M. (2013-12-01) On 23 October 2011 an M-w 7.1 earthquake occurred in eastern Turkey, close to the towns of Van and Ercis, causing more than 600 casualties and widespread structural damage. The earthquake ruptured a 60-70 km long northeast-southwest fault with a thrust mechanism, in agreement with regional tectonic stress regime. We studied the fault process of the event and the recorded ground motions using different sets of data. Regional records (0.005-0.010 Hz) are used to constrain the centroid moment tensor solution. ...
Flood forecasting and analysis within the Ulus Basin, Turkey, using geographic information systems Usul, Nurunnisa; Turan, Burak (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2006-10-01) Floods have been the most severe natural disasters in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey for many years; therefore Ulus Basin is selected as a study area for a thorough hydrologic flood analysis. The lack of embankments around the Ulus River and careless changes to the riverbed made by villagers, resulted in major flood events in the basin, causing significant damage in the area. In this study, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the basin and the riverbed are determined by calibrating the hydraulic module...
Geotechnical characteristics of residual soils in rainfall-triggered landslides in Rize, Turkey Üyetürk, Celal Emre; Huvaj Sarıhan, Nejan; Bayraktaroğlu, Hilmi; Huseyinpasaoglu, Mustafa (Elsevier BV, 2020-01-01) © 2019 Elsevier B.V.Every year, hundreds of landslides are triggered by rainfall in the city of Rize, northern Turkey, resulting in casualties and devastating social and economic consequences. Although these landslides have been observed every year, for a long time in Rize, there is limited data on characteristics of these soils in the literature. Characterizing these soils is of paramount importance for numerical modeling of the landslide mechanisms, for stabilization works, for landslide susceptibility ma...
Tsunami forecast modeling for Turkish coastlines Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Kanoğlu, Utku; Department of Engineering Sciences (2014) Turkish coastlines have been exposed to devastating tsunamis in the past. Today, Turkey has densely populated shorelines with substantial touristic activities and critical infrastructures along its shorelines. Tsunami propagation database and tsunami forecast models for the coastal communities are the two major components of the tsunami forecasting methodology which is developed by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the Pacifi c Marine Env...
Evaluation of alluvial deposits in Gemlik basin in terms of earthquake codes. Avşar, Ulaş; Doyuran, Vedat; Department of Geological Engineering (2006) Gemlik County is located in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey), which has been affected by destructive earthquakes sourced from North Anatolian Fault System throughout its history. The bulk of the settlement rests on alluvial deposits of the Gemlik pull-apart basin. So, it is vital to investigate the foundation soils in this basin and the response of them to earthquakes. Many earthquake codes were established by the authorities in different countries of the world to estimate the possible ground shaking and seis...

Citation Formats

M. Ahmadiadli, N. Huvaj Sarıhan, and N. K. Toker, “Rainfall triggered landslides in unsaturated soils a numerical sensitivity analysis for rainfall threshold,” presented at the General Assembly 2012 of the European Geosciences Union, (22 - 27 April 2012), Vienna, Austria, 2012, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2012/EGU2012-5378.pdf.