Understanding Drought with Copula Functions: Case Study for Konya Province

Date

2018-10-07

Author

Evkaya, Ömer Ozan
Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan
Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

215
views

0
downloads

Drought is one of the most drastic and complex natural phenomenon in the world, a major reason for undesired agricultural, economic and environmental damages. For this reason, the objective identification of drought and its characteristics deserve more detailed models. Most of the studies in the literature related to drought monitoring and analysis are based on special widespread quantitative drought indices. On the other hand, the generated drought indices have been derived using only one drought related parameter. However, the recent studies illustrated that the drought is a multi-scalar natural hazard having serious effects clearly. In this respect, the main objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, the construction of a new copula based bivariate drought index has been considered with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration time series data. For the index generation, two weather variables are jointly considered via copula approach to establish a novel drought indicator. Additionally, most widely used drought characteristics, namely drought duration, severity and peak intensity are elaborated for the historical drought events in terms of available drought indices. The performance of the copula based drought index is examined by comparing the existed univariate drought indices like SPI and SPEI over different time scales. For this case study, monthly based weather data between 1950-2010 for weather stations in Konya province is implemented.

Subject Keywords

Drought, Drought indices, Copulas, Drought characteristics

URI

http://igs2018.mu.edu.tr/Belgeler/35/35/ISDC2018_Abstracts_and_Proceedings_Book_Final_1.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/78161

Conference Name

11th International Statistics Days Conference (3 - 7 Ekim 2018)

Collections

Department of Statistics, Conference / Seminar

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Drought Forecasting with Time Series and Machine Learning Approaches Evkaya, Ömer Ozan; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe (null; 2017-12-08) As a main reason of undesired agricultural, economic and environmental damages, drought is one of the most important stochastic natural hazard having certain features. In order to manage the impacts of drought, more than 100 drought indices have been proposed for both monitoring and forecasting purposes [1], [3]. For different types of droughts, these indices have been used to understand the effects of dry periods including meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in many distinct locations. I...
Analysis of the 2007 and 2013 Droughts in Turkey by NOAH Hydrological Model Bulut, Burak; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2016-10-01) Analysis of drought, which is classified as a natural disaster, is globally considering the damage it gives. As a result detection of its characteristics is essential for understanding and reducing the effects of this natural disaster and for imminent prediction. In this study, soil moisture estimates obtained from NOAH hydrological model and normalized difference vegetation index obtained from MODIS observations are used to analysis the recent droughts in Turkey. With the utilization of these parameters th...
Gene regulation network behind drought escape, avoidance and tolerance strategies in black poplar (Populus nigra L.) Yildirim, Kubilay; Kaya, Zeki (2017-06-01) Drought is the major environmental problem limiting the productivity and survival of plant species. Here, previously identified three black poplar genotypes having contrasting response to drought were subjected to gradual soil water depletion in a pot trial to identify their physiological, morphological and antioxidation related adaptations. We also performed a microarray based transcriptome analyses on the leaves of genotypes by using Affymetrix poplar Genome Array containing 56,000 transcripts. Phenotypic...
Risk-based reservoir operation under drought conditions Türkeri, Mustafa Kemal; Akyürek, Sevda Zuhal; Department of Civil Engineering (2019) This study introduces a practical drought risk assessment methodology for reservoirs and hydraulic structures, which can be used in basin drought risk management. Reservoir operation study is used as a main tool in the risk assessment methodology. The methodology developed in this study contains a probabilistic deficiency analysis approach for reservoir inflows. Different scenarios are developed which include hydrological deficiencies for various return periods. Developed scenarios are also modified for cli...
Modelling weather index based drought insurance for provinces in the Central Anatolia Region Evkaya, Ö. Ozan; Yıldırak, Ş. Kasırga; Department of Actuarial Sciences (2012) Drought, which is an important result of the climate change, is one of the most serious natural hazards globally. It has been agreed all over the world that it has adverse impacts on the production of agriculture, which plays a major role in the economy of a country. Studies showed that the results of the drought directly affected the crop yields, and it seems that this negative impact will continue drastically soon. Moreover, many researches revealed that, Turkey will be affected from the results of climat...

Citation Formats

Ö. O. Evkaya, C. Yozgatlıgil, and S. A. Kestel, “Understanding Drought with Copula Functions: Case Study for Konya Province,” presented at the 11th International Statistics Days Conference (3 - 7 Ekim 2018), Muğla, Türkiye, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://igs2018.mu.edu.tr/Belgeler/35/35/ISDC2018_Abstracts_and_Proceedings_Book_Final_1.pdf.