Understanding Drought with Copula Functions: Case Study for Konya Province

Evkaya, Ömer Ozan
Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan
Selçuk Kestel, Ayşe Sevtap
Drought is one of the most drastic and complex natural phenomenon in the world, a major reason for undesired agricultural, economic and environmental damages. For this reason, the objective identification of drought and its characteristics deserve more detailed models. Most of the studies in the literature related to drought monitoring and analysis are based on special widespread quantitative drought indices. On the other hand, the generated drought indices have been derived using only one drought related parameter. However, the recent studies illustrated that the drought is a multi-scalar natural hazard having serious effects clearly. In this respect, the main objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, the construction of a new copula based bivariate drought index has been considered with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration time series data. For the index generation, two weather variables are jointly considered via copula approach to establish a novel drought indicator. Additionally, most widely used drought characteristics, namely drought duration, severity and peak intensity are elaborated for the historical drought events in terms of available drought indices. The performance of the copula based drought index is examined by comparing the existed univariate drought indices like SPI and SPEI over different time scales. For this case study, monthly based weather data between 1950-2010 for weather stations in Konya province is implemented.
Citation Formats
Ö. O. Evkaya, C. Yozgatlıgil, and A. S. Selçuk Kestel, “Understanding Drought with Copula Functions: Case Study for Konya Province,” presented at the 11th International Statistics Days Conference (3 - 7 Ekim 2018), Muğla, Türkiye, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://igs2018.mu.edu.tr/Belgeler/35/35/ISDC2018_Abstracts_and_Proceedings_Book_Final_1.pdf.