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Risk-based reservoir operation under drought conditions

Türkeri, Mustafa Kemal
This study introduces a practical drought risk assessment methodology for reservoirs and hydraulic structures, which can be used in basin drought risk management. Reservoir operation study is used as a main tool in the risk assessment methodology. The methodology developed in this study contains a probabilistic deficiency analysis approach for reservoir inflows. Different scenarios are developed which include hydrological deficiencies for various return periods. Developed scenarios are also modified for climate change by utilizing trend slope. In addition, past hydrological drought events are also evaluated in order to compare probabilistic scenarios with historical drought events. The probabilistic scenarios and reservoir operation studies are modeled by using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software of Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). In the discussion part, the vulnerability status of reservoirs is determined by evaluating the reservoir behaviors under drought conditions and supply insufficiencies obtained with operation studies. By utilizing determined vulnerabilities, operation strategies to mitigate hydrological drought impacts are determined. The developed methodology is tested successfully on a reservoir system which includes three dams and one diversion weir located in Sivas, Turkey. A catastrophic drought event with 100-years return period was assessed and a future operation plan was recommended for the hydraulic structures located in the case study area. With the application of recommended operation strategies, it is determined that Sivas Province and Hafik District will have sufficient municipal water until 2050 even if a catastrophic drought occurs in the study area, provided that there is no change in the conditions considered in this study.