Drought Forecasting with Time Series and Machine Learning Approaches

As a main reason of undesired agricultural, economic and environmental damages, drought is one of the most important stochastic natural hazard having certain features. In order to manage the impacts of drought, more than 100 drought indices have been proposed for both monitoring and forecasting purposes [1], [3]. For different types of droughts, these indices have been used to understand the effects of dry periods including meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in many distinct locations. In this respect, the future projections of drought indices allow the decision makers to assess certain risks of dry periods beforehand. In addition to the use of classical time series techniques for understanding the upcoming droughts, machine learning methods might be effective alternatives for forecasting the future events based on relevant drought index [2]. This study aims to identify the benefits of various methods for forecasting the future dry seasons with widely known drought indices. For that purpose, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) have been considered over different time scales (3, 6, 9 months) to represent drought in Kulu weather station, Konya. The considered drought indices were used for forecasting the future period using both time series prediction tools and machine learning techniques. The forecast results of all methods with respect to different drought indices were examined with the data set of 1950-2010 for Kulu station. The potential benefits and limitations of various methods and drought indices were discussed in detail
10.International Statistics Congress (ISC2017), (6 - 08 Aralık 2017),


Understanding Drought with Copula Functions: Case Study for Konya Province
Evkaya, Ömer Ozan; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe (null; 2018-10-07)
Drought is one of the most drastic and complex natural phenomenon in the world, a major reason for undesired agricultural, economic and environmental damages. For this reason, the objective identification of drought and its characteristics deserve more detailed models. Most of the studies in the literature related to drought monitoring and analysis are based on special widespread quantitative drought indices. On the other hand, the generated drought indices have been derived using only one drought related p...
Gene regulation network behind drought escape, avoidance and tolerance strategies in black poplar (Populus nigra L.)
Yildirim, Kubilay; Kaya, Zeki (2017-06-01)
Drought is the major environmental problem limiting the productivity and survival of plant species. Here, previously identified three black poplar genotypes having contrasting response to drought were subjected to gradual soil water depletion in a pot trial to identify their physiological, morphological and antioxidation related adaptations. We also performed a microarray based transcriptome analyses on the leaves of genotypes by using Affymetrix poplar Genome Array containing 56,000 transcripts. Phenotypic...
Drought analysis using CORDEX simulations over the mediterranean climate regions of Turkey
Poyraz, Anıl Yıldırım; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2018)
Drought has been a significant result of climate change that causes variance on precipitation regimes. Mediterranean region is one of the hotspots of the world in this respect. Dry summers and rainy winters -the characteristic of this climate type- makes this region more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Hence, it is important to monitor drought considering the increasing population and economic facilities in the regions that are under Mediterranean climate conditions in Turkey. This study aims t...
Drought analysis of Konya Closed Basin with the use of TMPA satellite-based precipitation data
Yılmaz, Meriç (2017-01-01)
Investigation of drought that has heavy sociological and economical costs to countries is very important to alleviate its adverse impacts and to take the necessary precautions. Konya Closed Basin, which has critical role in terms of agricultural yield for our country, is one of the regions where the impact of the drought is felt the most due to its semi-arid climate. For this reason, in this study, severity, duration, and impact area of drought is analyzed over Konya Closed Basin between 1998 and 2015. In t...
Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring in northeastern China using general circulation models and pan evaporation-based drought indices
Faiz, Muhammad Abrar; Liu, Dong; Fu, Qiang; Wrzesinski, Dariusz; Baig, Faisal; Nabi, Ghulam; Khan, Muhammad Imran; Li, Tianxiao; Cui, Song (2018-01-01)
The evaluation of precipitation extremes and the usage of appropriate drought indices are very important for assessment of natural disasters (i.e. floods and drought). For this purpose, we calculated values of indices that reflect precipitation extremes and 3 drought indices, i.e. the composite index (CI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and reconnaissance drought index (RDI), with reformulation of pan evaporation and Penman-Monteith equations (denoted as CI-Pan, RDI-Pan, RDI-PM,...
Citation Formats
Ö. O. Evkaya, C. Yozgatlıgil, and S. A. Kestel, “Drought Forecasting with Time Series and Machine Learning Approaches,” presented at the 10.International Statistics Congress (ISC2017), (6 - 08 Aralık 2017), Ankara, Türkiye, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/79067.