The Determining Role of EU in Turkey’xxs Trade Flows: A GravityModel Approach

2008-01-01
Erdil, Erkan
Bilici, Özgür
This paper aims to determine the role of EU in Turkey’s trade flows by using the gravity model. It also aims to test whether the Customs Union (of EU) that Turkey entered in 1996 made a deviation in Turkey’s trade flows. Regional trade agreements on the one hand create new trade opportunities (trade creation effect). On the other hand, these agreements may also lead to diversion from free trade (trade diversion effect). Turkey’s Customs Union agreement without becoming a member of EU provides a laboratory to researchers to test whether the agreement was significant enough to cause any deviation in Turkey’s trade flow. In the first part of the study, we shortly provide some descriptive statistics related to Turkey’s trade flows with EU to see whether EU has gained any weight in the flows. In the second part, we first develop a gravity model that econometrically designates the determinants of Turkey’s trade flows via panel data approach. Next, we use this equation to test the importance of EU countries in Turkey’s trade flow and whether the flow has been subject to a deviation after the Customs Union agreement. Our findings indicate that EU countries have always been important in Turkey’s trade flow and that Customs Union has increased EU’s importance marginally in determining Turkey’s trade flow.
Working Papers in Economics

Suggestions

The role of feed-in tariffs in emission mitigation: Turkish case
Ari, Izzet; Sarı, Ramazan (2015-08-01)
The aim of this paper is to present the role of Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) on GHG emission reduction in Turkey. Due to insufficient installed capacity, Turkey can only utilize 27% of its total economically viable renewable energy potential. To increase the share of the renewables, utilization of these sources has become a top priority in the overall energy agenda. Thus, new regulations and policies are introduced. These policies are expected to serve to increase installed capacities of renewable energy power pl...
The sustainability analysis of Turkish domestic debt
Alkan, Feyza; Öcal, Nadir; Department of Economics (2009)
In this thesis, sustainability of the Turkish domestic debt is analyzed within the “sustainability indicators” perspective. The fiscal targets of Maastricht Treaty (1992) are imposed on the Turkish fiscal policy and it is investigated whether these targets are the indicators for sustainability in the medium term. Uctum and Wickens’ (2000) methodology is followed in assessing the sustainability of the current fiscal policy and the efficiency of the Maastricht Treaty (1992) targets. Moreover, the vector auto ...
The relationship between energy and production: Evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry
Soytaş, Uğur; Sarı, Ramazan (2007-11-01)
This paper investigates the relationship between energy and production at the industry level in an emerging market, Turkey, in a multivariate framework. The electricity consumption and value added relation is examined in the Turkish manufacturing industry, while also accounting for labor and fixed investment. We find that labor, fixed investment, electricity consumption, and value added are related via three cointegrating vectors. The VEC results indicate uni-directional causality running from electricity c...
The reflections of identity in Cyprus: Claims and perspectives on Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons
İşlek, Serpil; Baracco, Luciano; Political Science and International Relations (2016-1)
The aim of this thesis is to analyse the in-between perceptions of identity in Cyprus and the relation to the arguments over natural gas and hydrocarbon reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. In this regard, this thesis looks at the impacts of the natural gas activities and arguments on escalating nationalism and on the Cyprus Problem. The debates and perspectives on nationalism, identity, the dispute of sovereignty and ownership constitute the main factors for the Cyprus Problem and for the relations b...
The effects of agricultural liberalization on sectoral water use: A CGE Model for Turkey
Çırpıcı, Yasemin Asu (Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi (Ankara, Turkey), 2011-8)
The aim of this study is to construct a water-CGE model for Turkey in order to examine the effects of a reduction in agricultural tariff rates on Turkey’s international trade and on agricultural water use. With agricultural trade liberalization Turkey becomes a net importer of the agricultural products. The agricultural production declines resulting in a reduction in the agricultural water use. The same simulation is considered with an increase in agricultural productivity. The trade distortions resulted fr...
Citation Formats
E. Erdil and Ö. Bilici, “The Determining Role of EU in Turkey’xxs Trade Flows: A GravityModel Approach,” Working Papers in Economics, pp. 0–0, 2008, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/81107.