Estimation of Wheat Yield using Remotely Sensed and Modeled Data over Turkey

Date

2020-05-08

Author

Bulut, Burak
Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul
Afshar, Mehdi

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Büyüme mevsimi boyunca tarımsal mahsul koşullarını izlemek ve potansiyel mahsul verimini tahmin etmek, mevsimlik üretimi değerlendirmek için önemlidir. Kuraklık gibi bir doğal afetin neden olduğu mahsul verimindeki kayıpların doğru ve zamanında değerlendirilmesi, ekonomilerinin tarımsal üretkenliklerine bağlı olduğu ülkeler için kritik olabilir. Mahsul verimindeki azalmanın erken değerlendirilmesi, felaket bir durumu önleyebilir ve stratejik planlama taleplerinin karşılanmasına yardımcı olabilir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki buğday rekoltesini tahmin etmek için Çoklu Doğrusal Regresyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Ürün verimliliğini etkileyen değişkenlerin (yani yağış, arazi yüzeyi sıcaklığı, toprak nemi, rüzgar ve Normalleştirilmiş Bitki Örtüsü Fark Endeksi) uzaktan algılanan, model ve yerinde tabanlı ölçümleri, verim verilerinin bulunduğu seçilmiş alanlar üzerinden çıkarılmıştır. bunlarda mevcut. Veri setleri, farklı zaman ölçekleri kullanılarak toplanır (örneğin, ekim öncesi / sırasında, yetiştirme mevsimi, hasattan bir / iki ay önce, vb.). 700'den fazla farklı model kombinasyonunun toplam 700'den fazla farklı idari birimde (yani ilçeler, iller ve bölgeler) çapraz doğrulaması, her ilçe için seçilen en iyi modeli kullanarak ortalama olarak 0,65'lik bir korelasyon değerinin ve tahmini ve gözlemlenen verim değerleri arasında ortalama 35 kg / da mutlak hata elde edilebilir. Bu tutarlılık, İç Anadolu bölgesinde yer alan ve içlerindeki buğdayın ortalama üretiminin ülkenin geri kalan ilçelerine göre daha fazla olduğu ilçelerde daha belirgindir. Genel olarak, gözlemlenen verim verilerinin seçilen tahmin edicilerinin bölgesel farklılıkları, arazi yüzey sıcaklığının ülke genelinde buğday rekoltesi tahmini için yararlı bir keşif ve tahmin aracı sağlayabileceğini göstermektedir.

URI

https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1067
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/82123
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2020/EGU2020-1067.html

DOI

https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1067

Conference Name

EGU General Assembly 2020, (4 - 08 Mayıs 2020)

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

B. Bulut, M. T. Yılmaz, and M. Afshar, “Estimation of Wheat Yield using Remotely Sensed and Modeled Data over Turkey,” presented at the EGU General Assembly 2020, (4 - 08 Mayıs 2020), 2020, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1067.