Date

2017-12-15

Author

Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul
Alp, Emre
Sarıcan, Yeliz
Afsar, Mehdi
Bulut, Burak
Ersoy, Erhan Nuri
Karasu, İpek Gül
Önen, Alper

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Allocation of the river flow for ecosystems is very critical for sustainable management of ecosystems containing aquatic habitats in need of more water than other environments. Availability and allocation of water over such locations becomes more stressed as a result of the influence of human interventions (e.g., increased water use for irrigation) and the expected change in climate. This study investigates the current and future (until 2100) low-flow requirements over 10 subcatchments in a Mediterranean Watershed, in Turkey, using Tennant and hydrological low-flow methods. The future river flows are estimated using HBV model forced by climate projections obtained by HADGEM2, MPI-ESM-MR, and CNRM-CM5.1 models coupled with RegCM4.3 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Critical flows (i.e., Q10, Q25, Q50) are calculated using the best fit to commonly used distributions for the river flow data, while the decision between the selection of Q10, Q25, Q50 critical levels are made depending on the level of human interference made over the catchment. Total three low-flow requirement estimations are obtained over each subcatchment using the Tennant (two estimates for the low and high flow seasons for environmentally good conditions) and the hydrological low-flow methods. The highest estimate among these three methods is selected as the low-flow requirement of the subcatchment. The river flows over these 10 subcatchments range between 197hm3 and 1534hm3 while the drainage areas changing between 936 and 4505 km2. The final low-flow estimation (i.e., the highest among the three estimate) for the current conditions range between 94 hm3 and 715 hm3. The low-flow projection values between 2075 and 2099 are on average 39% lower than the 2016 values, while the steepest decline is expected between 2050 and 2074. The low flow and high flow season Tennant estimates dropped 22-25% while the hydrological method low-flow estimates dropped 32% from 2016 to 2075-2099 average, where Tennant estimates are sensitive to the precipitation projections while hydrological flow estimates are sensitive to the degree that the subcatchment flows are regulated/intervened. On the other hand, the combined low-flow estimate, the highest of three methods, dropped around 39%, reflecting combined impact of human intervention and climate change. Plain Language Summary Allocation of the river flow for ecosystems is very critical for sustainable management of ecosystems containing aquatic habitats in need of more water than other environments. Availability and allocation of water over such locations becomes more stressed as a result of the influence of human interventions (e.g., increased water use for irrigation) and the expected change in climate. This study investigates the current and future (until 2100) low-flow requirements over 10 subcatchments in a Mediterranean Watershed, in Turkey, using various methods. The future river flows are estimated using a hydrological model forced by climate projections. Critical flows are calculated using the best fit to commonly used distributions for the river flow data, while the decision between the selection of critical levels are made depending on the level of human interference made over the catchment. The low-flow projection values between 2075 and 2099 are on average 39% lower than the 2016 values, while the steepest decline is expected between 2050 and 2074. Overall, the low-flow estimates dropped around 39%, reflecting combined impact of human intervention and climate change.

URI

https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/273403
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/82946

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar