Impact of hydrologic uncertainties in reservoir routing

Date

2008-05-27

Author

Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin
Yanmaz, Ali Melih

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Reservoir routing methods are used in the design and operation of storage facilities at high flow conditions. Traditionally, deterministic approaches have been used for reservoir flood routing computations, which do not account for possible variations in governing parameters. However, hydrologic variables, such as inflow, stage, and outflow may naturally have various sources of uncertainties. Since important dimensions, such as dam height and spillway size, are normally dictated by reservoir routing performed under design flood conditions, use of precise statistical information on governing hydrologic variables is of utmost importance in view of safety and economy. In this study, variations in hydrologic parameters that are utilized in reservoir flood routing are discussed in a practical application with a flood detention dam. Furthermore, probability density functions and coefficients of variation of selected random parameters involved in routing computations are investigated. Within the scope of this study, statistical parameters of inflow, outflow, and reservoir water level are investigated through Monte Carlo analysis. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the effects of possible variations in associated uncertainties of hydrologic parameters.

Subject Keywords

Hydrology, Uncertainty, Reservoir routing, Monte Carlo Analysis

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/84037

Conference Name

International Conference on Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support BALWOIS ,(2008)

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

E. Kentel Erdoğan and A. M. Yanmaz, “Impact of hydrologic uncertainties in reservoir routing,” presented at the International Conference on Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support BALWOIS ,(2008), Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia, 2008, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/84037.