Performance comparison of filtering methods on modelling and forecasting the total precipitation amount: a case study for Mugla in Turkey

Date

2021-03-01

Author

NESLİHANOĞLU, SERDAR
ÜNAL, ECEM
Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

197
views

0
downloads

Condensed water vapor in the atmosphere is observed as precipitation whenever moist air rises sufficiently enough to produce saturation, condensation, and the growth of precipitation particles. It is hard to measure the amount and concentration of total precipitation over time due to the changes in the amount of precipitation and the variability of climate. As a result of these, the modelling and forecasting of precipitation amount is challenging. For this reason, this study compares forecasting performances of different methods on monthly precipitation series with covariates including the temperature, relative humidity, and cloudiness of Mula region, Turkey. To accomplish this, the performance of multiple linear regression, the state space model (SSM) via Kalman Filter, a hybrid model integrating the logistic regression and SSM models, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), exponential smoothing with state space model (ETS), exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation-ARMA errors-trend and seasonal components (TBATS), feed-forward neural network (NNETAR) and Prophet models are all compared. This comparison has yet to be undertaken in the literature. The empirical findings overwhelmingly support the SSM when modelling and forecasting the monthly total precipitation amount of the Mula region, encouraging the time-varying coefficients extensions of the precipitation model.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/90031

Journal

JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE

DOI

https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.332

Collections

Department of Statistics, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Performance comparison of filtering methods on modelling and forecasting total precipitation amount Ünal, Ecem; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Department of Statistics (2019) The performance of condensed water vapour in the atmosphere observed as precipitation on the earth surface with the consequence of gravity. It is hard to observe and measure the amount and concentration of total precipitation with its all types changing over time. This difficulty can be explained by the association between the changing amount of precipitation and the variability in the climate with its both causes and consequences. As a result of these factors, modelling and forecasting of monthly total pre...
Spatial distribution of light-emitting centers in Si-implanted SiO2 Serincan, U; Aygun, G; Turan, Raşit (Elsevier BV, 2005-06-01) Light emission from Si-implanted SiO2 layer is a well-known phenomenon. We demonstrated that samples which were implanted with Si-28 at a dose of 1.5 x 10(17) cm(-2) at 100 keV and annealed at 1050 degrees C for 2h exhibit two broad photoluminescence (PL) peaks at similar to 650 and 850 nm. The origin of these peaks was investigated by a controlled etch experiment in order to figure out the dependence of the PL spectrum on the location of the implanted Si atoms. It was found that the emission peak of 850 nm...
Uncertainty assessment in projection of the extreme river flows, the case of Ömerli catchment, İstanbul Engin, Batuhan Eren; Yücel, İsmail; Yılmaz, Ayşen; Department of Earth System Science (2015) The average temperature at the surface of the Earth has been increasing over the past century due to the increased greenhouse gases concentrations in atmosphere through anthropogenic activities. Rising temperature leads to an increase in evaporation and thus intensifies the components of water cycle which results in extreme flows in different parts of the world through changes in globally averaged precipitation. Projection of extreme flows is very important in this aspect, yet obscurity about many factors t...
Adsorption properties of a natural zeolite-water pair for use in adsorption cooling cycles Solmus, Ismail; Yamali, Cemil; KAFTANOĞLU, BİLGİN; Baker, Derek Keıth; Caglar, Ahmet (2010-06-01) The equilibrium adsorption capacity of water on a natural zeolite has been experimentally determined at different zeolite temperatures and water vapor pressures for use in an adsorption cooling system. The Dubinin-Astakhov adsorption equilibrium model is fitted to experimental data with an acceptable error limit. Separate correlations are obtained for adsorption and desorption processes as well as a single correlation to model both processes. The isosteric heat of adsorption of water on zeolite has been cal...
Terahertz absorption spectrum of para and ortho water vapors at different humidities at room temperature Xin, X.; Altan, Hakan; Saint, A.; Matten, D.; Alfano, R. R. (2006-11-01) Terahertz time-domain spectroscopy has been used to measure the absorption of water vapor in 0.2-2.4 THz range from low to high humidity at room temperature. The observed absorption lines are due to the water molecular rotations in the ground vibrational state. We find that the absorption strength of para transitions increases as humidity increases, while the absorption strength of ortho transitions increases and then decreases in intensity with increasing humidity. We explain this difference based on the n...

Citation Formats

S. NESLİHANOĞLU, E. ÜNAL, and C. Yozgatlıgil, “Performance comparison of filtering methods on modelling and forecasting the total precipitation amount: a case study for Mugla in Turkey,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE, pp. 0–0, 2021, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/90031.