Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Behrens, Jörn
Løvholt, Finn
Jalayer, Fatemeh
Lorito, Stefano
Salgado-Gálvez, Mario A.
Sørensen, Mathilde
Abadie, Stephane
Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio
Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo
Babeyko, Andrey
Baiguera, Marco
Basili, Roberto
Belliazzi, Stefano
Grezio, Anita
Johnson, Kendra
Murphy, Shane
Paris, Raphaël
Rafliana, Irina
De Risi, Raffaele
Rossetto, Tiziana
Selva, Jacopo
Taroni, Matteo
Del Zoppo, Marta
Armigliato, Alberto
Bureš, Vladimír
Cech, Pavel
Cecioni, Claudia
Christodoulides, Paul
Davies, Gareth
Dias, Frédéric
Bayraktar, Hafize Başak
González, Mauricio
Gritsevich, Maria
Guillas, Serge
Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie
Kanoğlu, Utku
Macías, Jorge
Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.
Polet, Jascha
Romano, Fabrizio
Salamon, Amos
Scala, Antonio
Stepinac, Mislav
Tappin, David R.
Thio, Hong Kie
Tonini, Roberto
Triantafyllou, Ioanna
Ulrich, Thomas
Varini, Elisa
Volpe, Manuela
Vyhmeister, Eduardo
Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.
Frontiers in Earth Science


Broadband ground motion simulation within Duzce city (Turkey)
Özmen, Ekin; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Department of Earthquake Studies (2019)
Earthquakes have more hazardous and devastating effects in populated areas. To prevent damage and reduce the risks, broadband records are collected to use in the seismic hazard assessment and engineering seismology. In areas with significant seismic activity and insufficient seismic networks, the simulated ground motions become more important. Broadband ground motion simulations are performed for 12 November 1999 Duzce earthquake. Deterministic simulations are performed for low frequency part and stochastic...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for sliding displacement of slopes: an application in Turkey
Gülerce, Zeynep (2017-07-01)
Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools such as Newmark's sliding block (NSB) analysis are widely used to estimate the sliding displacement of slopes during earthquake shaking. Additionally, empirical models for predicting NSB displacement using single or multiple ground motion intensity measures based on global (e.g. NGA-W1 database, Chiou et al. 2008) or regional datasets are available. The objective of this study is to...
Tsunami risk assesment and positioning of a tsunami early warning system
Yavuz, Cüneyt; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin; Aral, Mustafa M.; Department of Civil Engineering (2018)
Tsunamis are rarely experienced events; they have enormous potential to cause large economic destruction on the critical infrastructures and facilities, social devastation due to mass casualty, and environmental adverse effects like erosion, accumulation and inundation. Especially for the past two decades, nations have encountered devastating tsunami events. The aim of this study is to investigate economic, social and environmental risks along the coastline for Eastern Mediterranean due to tsunamis. Additio...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for earthquake induced landslides
Balal, Onur; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2013)
Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools, such as Newmark’s Sliding Block (NSB) Analysis are widely used to represent the stability of a slope under earthquake shaking. The outcome of this analogy is the slope displacement where larger displacement values indicate higher seismic slope instability risk. Recent studies in the literature propose empirical models between the slope displacement and single or multiple ground mot...
Tsunami action on coasts and constructions
Tsunamis are high-impact, long-lasting disasters, which in most cases allow for only a few minutes of warning before impact. The amount of energy behind huge tsunami waves can cause severe destruction when it hits land and consequently causes massive loss of human life. The impact of tsunami can be considered in social, environmental, and economic dimensions. The social impact can be seen in destruction of life and property, health crisis and disease. Tsunamis may cause massive environmentally impact by dev...
Citation Formats
J. Behrens et al., “Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps,” Frontiers in Earth Science, pp. 0–0, 2021, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: