Tsunami risk assesment and positioning of a tsunami early warning system

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2018

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Yavuz, Cüneyt

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Tsunamis are rarely experienced events; they have enormous potential to cause large economic destruction on the critical infrastructures and facilities, social devastation due to mass casualty, and environmental adverse effects like erosion, accumulation and inundation. Especially for the past two decades, nations have encountered devastating tsunami events. The aim of this study is to investigate economic, social and environmental risks along the coastline for Eastern Mediterranean due to tsunamis. Additionally, the best position for a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) among a set of potential locations in the Eastern Mediterranean based on the maximum social risk reduction is identified. In achieving these goals, the following analysis are sequentially conducted: i) Probabilistic tsunami modelling, ii) Social, economic, and environmental risk assessment and iii) Decision making for the best location of TEWS. Probabilistic tsunami modelling is carried out through Monte Carlo Simulations. NAMI-DANCE is used to simulate tsunamis originating in the selected area. Social, economic and environmental risks are calculated for selected 91 elements at risk located in Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Lebanon, Syria vi and Turkey. Depth-damage curves and exceedance probabilities are used to calculate social and economic risks while environmental risk is calculated using a binary approach. Overall risk maps are also constructed for three different scenarios using ArcGIS environment for the whole study area. The highest risk is calculated for Cairo Agricultural Area with respect to economic and social risk dimensions. In Turkey, Fethiye City Center is identified as the most critical element at risk for economic risk assessment. A number of potential locations for TEWS are determined based on physical constraints identified through an extended literature review and corresponding social risk reductions for each of these TEWS calculated. The best location for the TEWS is identified around 35.45°N/28.21°E.

Subject Keywords

Tsunamis., Tsunami damage., Risk assessment., Tsunami hazard zones.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12622512/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/27739

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

C. Yavuz, “Tsunami risk assesment and positioning of a tsunami early warning system,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2018.