An evaluation of seismic hazard and potential damage in Gaziantep, Turkey using site specific models for sources, velocity structure and building stock

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh
Arslan Kelam, Arzu
Yousefibavil, Karim
Akgün, Haluk
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül
Erberik, Murat Altuğ
Ciftci, Hacer
Pekcan, Onur
Assessment of potential seismic risk and losses in urban environments is necessary for several purposes ranging from risk mitigation to city and regional planning. It is well known that loss estimation should be performed within an interdisciplinary setting involving earth sciences and engineering. Field experience from recent events worldwide shows that the spatial variability of seismic damage is due to the combined effects of earthquake source properties, local site conditions and structural characteristics. In this study, a scenario-based multi-input damage estimation framework in an urban region was utilized for the Gaziantep city center (southeastern Turkey) that is located in a region of high seismic hazard with no large events in the instrumental era. Initially, a thorough geological and seismo-tectonic assessment of the area was performed followed by estimation of two critical scenario events with moment magnitude (Mw) of 6.5 and 6.6 on nearby active faults. Then, a regional velocity model was compiled from regressions of existing regional geotechnical and seismic data in terms of the VS30 parameter. As the next step, field surveys for the assessment and classification of buildings in the study area were performed followed by vulnerability analyses. As the last step, the mean damage ratios were computed at 198 neighborhoods within the city center. The results indicate not only a high hazard but also high risk in the Gaziantep area due to the combination of close proximity to the faults along with local site effects and building fragilities.
Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering


An Interdisciplinary Approach for Regional Seismic Damage Estimation
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Yakut, Ahmet (2017-01-09)
In order to mitigate seismic risk in urban regions, the first task is to identify potential seismic losses in future earthquakes. Seismic loss estimation is an interdisciplinary framework including a wide range of contributions from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. In this study, a moderate size city in Turkey, namely Erzincan, is modeled completely from geophysical attributes to the built environment. Erzincan city is on the eastern part of the No...
An assessment of the 3 February 2002 Cay (Turkey) earthquake (Mw=6.6): Modeling of ground motions and felt intensity distribution
Can, Gizem; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (2021-11-01)
Estimation of earthquake ground motions is important for several purposes including seismic design, analysis, risk mitigation and disaster management. For regions with insufficient data, simulations become critical, particularly for earthquake engineering applications requiring full ground motion data. In this study, stochastic finite-fault simulation of the 3 February 2002 Cay event is presented at three available stations within epicentral distances less than 200 km. The simulations are initially validate...
Assessment of seismic hazard in the Erzincan (Turkey) region: construction of local velocity models and evaluation of potential ground motions
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Sisman, Fatma Nurten; Erkmen, Cenk (2015-01-01)
The fundamental step in estimation of seismic damage and losses in urban areas is identification of regional potential seismic hazard. The accuracy of seismic analyses depends on the reliability of the local input parameters used in the corresponding hazard and loss models. This paper presents detailed seismic hazard analyses for an earthquake-prone region using locally derived source and site parameters. Main components of this study are construction of local seismic velocity models, probabilistic and dete...
A grid-based seismic hazard analysis application
Kocair, Çelebi; Şener, Cevat; Akkaya, Ayşen; Department of Computer Engineering (2010)
The results of seismic hazard analysis (SHA) play a crucial role in assessing seismic risks and mitigating seismic hazards. SHA calculations generally involve magnitude and distance distribution models, and ground motion prediction models as components. Many alternatives have been proposed for these component models. SHA calculations may be demanding in terms of processing power depending on the models and analysis parameters involved, and especially the size of the site for which the analysis is to be perf...
A screening procedure for seismic risk assessment in urban building stocks
Sucuoğlu, Haluk; Yakut, Ahmet (SAGE Publications, 2007-05-01)
An effective step for seismic risk mitigation in large urban areas under high seismic risk is to identify the most vulnerable buildings that may sustain significant damage during a future earthquake. Once they are identified properly, existing seismic risks may be reduced either by retrofitting such buildings, or by replacing them with new buildings in view of a particular risk-mitigation planning strategy. A fast and simple seismic risk-assessment procedure for vulnerable urban building stocks is proposed ...
Citation Formats
S. Karimzadeh et al., “An evaluation of seismic hazard and potential damage in Gaziantep, Turkey using site specific models for sources, velocity structure and building stock,” Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, vol. 154, pp. 0–0, 2022, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: