HOW DOES RESOURCE SCARCITY PERCEPTION AFFECT ECONOMIC DECISION-MAKING? AN INVESTIGATION OF THE COGNITIVE AND BEHAVIORAL CONSEQUENCES OF RESOURCE SCARCITY PERCEPTION

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2022-6-24

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Demircioğlu, Doğukan

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When the poor go through financial difficulties, a scarcity mindset becomes activated (e.g., they psychologically experience the consequences of scarcity). This psychological aspect has a direct impact on their economic decision-making as well. In this thesis, we investigated how resource scarcity perception affects economic decision-making, specifically people’s time-discounting preferences, via the potential cognitive mechanisms (e.g., cognitive load, self-control, and thinking style) that it causes. We used Bayesian causal models, in the form of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), to cast light on the cognitive effects of resource scarcity perception on economic decision-making. To this end, we analyzed the data of previous studies with the bnlearn package to explore possible equivalent DAGs. We also examined the findings and the available causal models from the previous literature to build DAGs. We proposed a causal model describing the relationships between resource scarcity perception and economic decision-making by employing abstraction methods in Bayesian Networks. Specifically, our causal model suggests that resource scarcity perception negatively affects people’s self-control and leads them to have an intuitive mindset. The model also suggests that low (vs. high) SES people exhibit greater time-discounting preference (e.g., they tend to choose the immediate, proximal rewards over the larger, distal ones). As the last step, we causally tested this model in a preregistered experiment; however, the results indicated that our resource scarcity manipulation did not work as we intended. The results suggest that testing causal effects of resource scarcity is more difficult than initially assumed.

Subject Keywords

Time-discounting, Causal Bayesian Networks, Economic Decision-making, Resource Scarcity Perception

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/98141

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Graduate School of Informatics, Thesis

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Citation Formats

D. Demircioğlu, “HOW DOES RESOURCE SCARCITY PERCEPTION AFFECT ECONOMIC DECISION-MAKING? AN INVESTIGATION OF THE COGNITIVE AND BEHAVIORAL CONSEQUENCES OF RESOURCE SCARCITY PERCEPTION,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.