Numerical Modeling of Long Waves from Atypical Sources: Atmospheric Disturbances and Volcanic Origin

2022-6-30
Doğan Bingöl, Gözde Güney
Earthquakes are the main cause mechanisms of tsunamis and large tsunamigenic earthquakes, especially in the subduction zones, occur on relatively much shorter timescales, but destructive tsunamis are also produced by volcanic eruptions, which have been threatening the coastal communities throughout history. Furthermore, while earthquake-generated tsunamis have been studied immensely, there is less focus on research related to tsunamis induced by atmospheric disturbances (meteotsunamis). Consequently, this study focuses on numerical modeling of long waves (tsunamis and meteotsunamis) sourcing from those atypical origins, volcanic activities and atmospheric disturbances and investigates the complex mechanisms behind them. Initially, scenario-based research for the numerical modeling of the December 2018 Gunung Anak Krakatau tsunami was conducted to investigate the possible source mechanisms and their contribution to explaining the observed sea level disturbances. A flank collapse (partial destabilization of the volcano) scenario was suggested appearing capable of generating the observed tsunami along the coast of the affected area, Sunda Strait. Coupling of a two-layer landslide model and a hydrodynamic model was performed to test the ability of such an implementation to reproduce a recent and large-scale volcanic eruption induced tsunami via post-tsunami field survey observations and tide gauge record comparisons. Secondly, the long wave generation and amplification induced by spatial and temporal changes of the atmospheric pressure disturbance is numerically solved by introducing pressure and wind field terms to the nonlinear shallow water equations. Several numerical tests are conducted to compare against a new analytical solution for meteotsunami generation in water channels of quasi-parabolic shape (including triangular cross-section) and satisfactory results with less than 1% error are achieved. Furthermore, the possible wave amplification factors, oceanographic and hydrodynamic, are investigated via more than 500 simulations based on different basin configurations and pressure field characteristics, prepared with the “isolation of parameter” principle in mind. The influence of the wind field characteristics, which is the other contributing forcing mechanism in meteotsunami generation but lacks sufficient coverage in literature, on the wave response is also discussed based on several numerical tests. The relationships between the parameters and the possible wave amplification mechanisms are discussed based on the empirical curves derived from the simulation results. Finally, the propagation of the air pressure waves induced by the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic explosion and the consequent sea waves are modeled globally. Two different modeling approaches are proposed to solve the air pressure propagation: i) development of a synthetic pressure model based on barometric measurements and ii) implementation of the nonlinear shallow-water theory using an initial disturbance at the volcano. Then, the hydrodynamic model was forced with the produced pressure fields to compute the resulting tsunami waves in the Pacific Ocean, the Caribbean and the Mediterranean. The modeling results are presented with discussions on the possible sea level amplification mechanisms. Fairly well agreement between the computed and measured air pressure waves and sea levels at several locations around the globe is promising for explaining the far reach and long duration of the tsunami generated by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption. The suggested novel approaches can be alternative modeling applications for such phenomena with the efficient utilization of global data available for such an event for the first time.

Suggestions

Evaluation of coastal risk at selected sites against eastern mediterranean tsunamis
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Karakus, H.; Zaytsev, A.; Güler, Işıkhan (2010-12-01)
Mediterranean, the center of civilizations since antiquity, experienced numerous earthquakes and triggered tsunamis. Historical information and distribution of fault zones, volcanoes and other probable tsunamigenic sea bottom deformations show that, there are source areas which may be considered as responsible for tsunamis in Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black sea region. These events affected the coastal structures that led to the loss of the economic power and social life of civilizations si...
Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to background seismic activity models
Yilmaz, N.; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (2011-08-04)
In the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the past earthquake records that can not be associated with any one of the specific faults are treated as background seismic activity. Contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard is generally calculated by using two different models, namely: background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity model. In this study, two case studies are carried out for a large (a country) and a small region (a province) in order to in...
Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources
Latcharote, Panon; Suppasri, Anawat; Imamura, Fumihiko; Aytore, Betul; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2016-12-01)
This study evaluates tsunami hazards in the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami scenarios that are from submarine earthquakes and landslides. In terms of fault-generated tsunamis, seismic ruptures can propagate along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which has produced historical tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Based on the past studies, which consider fault-generated tsunamis and landslide-generated tsunamis individually, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunamis, and submarine landslides cou...
Comparison of Human Response Against Earthquake and Tsunami
Arıkawa, Taro; Güler, Hasan Gökhan; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2017-12-01)
The evacuation response against the earthquake and tsunamis is very important for the reduction of human damages against tsunami. But it is very difficult to predict the human behavior after shaking of the earthquake. The purpose of this research is to clarify the difference of the human response after the earthquake shock in the difference countries and to consider the relation between the response and the safety feeling, knowledge and education. For the objective of this paper, the questionnaire survey wa...
Complete Tsunami Hazard Assessment, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for the Marmara Coast of Istanbul Metropolitan Area
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi; Tüfekçi Enginar, Duygu; Yalçıner, Bora; Kolat, Çağıl; Baş, Mahmut; Kılıç, Osman; Menteşe, Emin Yahya; Tarih, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovski, Efim (null; 2019-04-07)
According to east to west propagation of major earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) since seventeenth century, a large magnitude (at least M=7.2) earthquake is expected to occur in the Sea of Marmara where the megacity of Istanbul located at the northern coast of the sea. There are numerous possibilities about the tsunami generation in the Sea of Marmara. In order to assess tsunami risk properly; collection and processing of high-resolution data and tsunami numerical modeling are necessary. In ...
Citation Formats
G. G. Doğan Bingöl, “Numerical Modeling of Long Waves from Atypical Sources: Atmospheric Disturbances and Volcanic Origin,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2022.