Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources

Date

2016-12-01

Author

Latcharote, Panon
Suppasri, Anawat
Imamura, Fumihiko
Aytore, Betul
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

241
views

0
downloads

This study evaluates tsunami hazards in the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami scenarios that are from submarine earthquakes and landslides. In terms of fault-generated tsunamis, seismic ruptures can propagate along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which has produced historical tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Based on the past studies, which consider fault-generated tsunamis and landslide-generated tsunamis individually, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunamis, and submarine landslides could be triggered by seismic motion. In addition to these past studies, numerical modeling has been applied to tsunami generation and propagation from combined earthquake and landslide sources. In this study, tsunami hazards are evaluated from both individual and combined cases of submarine earthquakes and landslides through numerical tsunami simulations with a grid size of 90 m for bathymetry and topography data for the entire Marmara Sea region and validated with historical observations from the 1509 and 1894 earthquakes. This study implements TUNAMI model with a two-layer model to conduct numerical tsunami simulations, and the numerical results show that the maximum tsunami height could reach 4.0 m along Istanbul shores for a full submarine rupture of the NAF, with a fault slip of 5.0 m in the eastern and western basins of the Marmara Sea. The maximum tsunami height for landslide-generated tsunamis from small, medium, and large of initial landslide volumes (0.15, 0.6, and 1.5 km(3), respectively) could reach 3.5, 6.0, and 8.0 m, respectively, along Istanbul shores. Possible tsunamis from submarine landslides could be significantly higher than those from earthquakes, depending on the landslide volume significantly. These combined earthquake and landslide sources only result in higher tsunami amplitudes for small volumes significantly because of amplification within the same tsunami amplitude scale (3.0-4.0 m). Waveforms from all the coasts around the Marmara Sea indicate that other residential areas might have had a high risk of tsunami hazards from submarine landslides, which can generate higher tsunami amplitudes and shorter arrival times, compared to Istanbul.

Subject Keywords

Marmara Sea, Tsunami hazards, Combined earthquake and landslide, Numerical modeling

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/40120

Journal

PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1411-z

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Comparison of tsunami risk assessment based on seismic and landslide generated tsunamis for the Marmara Coast of Istanbul Tüfekçi Enginar, Duygu; Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi; Kolat, Çağıl; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2019-04-07) A high resolution tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment have been performed for the Marmara coast of the megacity of Istanbul by using the MeTHuVA (METU Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment) Method (Tufekci et al., 2018) considering seismic and non-seismic (submarine landslide) tsunami sources in the sea of Marmara. The 28 September 2018, Mw7.5 strike-slip Sulawesi, Indonesia earthquake triggered an unexpected tsunami and caused damage and loss of lives in Palu Bay. The observed tsunami h...
Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Pirooz, Moharram D.; Zaker, Nasser H.; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2009-02-01) We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical model...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for earthquake induced landslides Balal, Onur; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2013) Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools, such as Newmark’s Sliding Block (NSB) Analysis are widely used to represent the stability of a slope under earthquake shaking. The outcome of this analogy is the slope displacement where larger displacement values indicate higher seismic slope instability risk. Recent studies in the literature propose empirical models between the slope displacement and single or multiple ground mot...
Potential tsunami hazard along the southern Turkish coast Aydin, Baran; Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Bayazitoglu, Ozge (Elsevier BV, 2020-06-01) The aim of this study is to determine the tsunami potential of the southern Turkish coast through hypothetical earthquake scenarios developed for several critical coastal sites in the region. A well-known tsunami numerical model (MOST) is utilized to calculate the run-up and inundation of the subsequent tsunami waves. The coastal regions selected to realize the aim of the study are Akkuyu and Yesilovacik from Mersin and Yumurtalik from Adana, which are chosen for their industrial and environmental importanc...
TSUNAMI MAXIMUM RUNUP AND FOCUSING THROUGH EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Aşık, Mehmet Zülfü; Department of Engineering Sciences (2022-8-11) In this study, the N-wave profile is fitted to the seafloor deformation for a large set of earthquake scenarios, i.e., assuming that the seafloor deformation resulting from an earthquake instantaneously transfers to the sea surface. Hence, the N-wave parameters are identified with respect to the earthquake source parameters allowing to express the initial tsunami profile in terms of the earthquake source parameters. Then, the maximum tsunami runup is presented through the earthquake fault plane parameters u...

Citation Formats

P. Latcharote, A. Suppasri, F. Imamura, B. Aytore, and A. C. Yalçıner, “Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources,” PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS, pp. 3823–3846, 2016, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/40120.