Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios towards effective climate mitigation in urban systems

2022-10-01
Kılkış, Şiir
© 2022 Elsevier LtdThere are critical mitigation opportunities in urban areas that can be better understood through urban level analyses in the context of climate scenarios. This research work develops an approach for emissions scenarios for specific urban areas based on Shared Socioeconomic and Representative Concentration Pathways with a focus on the green growth paradigm at the lowest radiative forcing outcomes. The scenario characteristic for compact urban form is further complemented with improvements in existing land use efficiencies that are based on the Global Human Settlement Layer. Urban emissions scenarios for 420 urban areas among those with the highest emissions footprint totaling about 10.7 GtCO2eq in 2020 and land use efficiency scenarios for the top 10 urban areas in 9 regions are analysed. The 90 urban areas that represent about 6.2 GtCO2eq of urban emissions and 83.3 thousand km2 of built-up area in 2020 are then compared in a two-dimensional scenario space. Co-benefits are quantified for a new 100% renewable energy scenario that represents electrification combined with sector coupling. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, random performances that near the most stringent emissions pathways in a range of ±10% can still approach net-zero emissions by 2050 in alignment with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Yet there is a penalty of about 0.95 GtCO2 even in the best land use efficiency scenario due to possible impacts of urban land expansion on the sequestration potential of local biomes. The results have widespread ramifications for guiding urban areas towards integrated action for reducing emissions, limiting the growth in urban extent, and providing co-benefits for urban inhabitants when effective action is needed urgently.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

Suggestions

ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DISASTER RISK MITIGATION AND URBAN PLANNING PROCESSES: THE CASE STUDY OF ESKISEHIR CITY
Sert Özkiremitçi, Merve; Balaban, Osman; Department of City and Regional Planning (2022-5-11)
The aim of this study is to discuss the effectiveness and efficiency of urban planning in reducing the risk of natural disasters in cities and to analyse the relationship between planning and disaster mitigation processes. The study focuses particularly on the analysis of Eskişehir case with reference to data and information on disaster risk analysis, existing urban development plans as well as the plan implementation processes. After the 1999 Gölcük and Düzce Earthquakes, Eskişehir has also faced and to a ...
Towards eo-based sustainable urban planning and management
Marconcini, Mattia; Esch, Thomas; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Düzgün, Hafize Şebnem; Tal, Abraham; Feigenwinter, Christian; Parlow, Eberhard (2013-07-26)
The increasing availability of Earth Observation (EO) technologies has provided new opportunities for a wide range of urban applications, such as mapping and monitoring of the urban environment, socio-economic estimations, characterization of urban climate, analysis of regional and global impacts and urban security and emergency preparedness. However, a gap exists between the research-focused results offered by the urban EO community and the application of these data and products by urban planners and decis...
Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100
Gurney, Kevin R.; Kılkış, Şiir; Seto, Karen C.; Lwasa, Shuaib; Moran, Daniel; Riahi, Keywan; Keller, Meredith; Rayner, Peter; Luqman, Muhammed (2022-03-01)
Projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are critical to enable a better understanding and anticipation of future climate change under different socio-economic conditions and mitigation strategies. The climate projections and scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) framework, have provided a rich understanding of the constraints and opportunities for policy action. However, the curre...
Adopting sustainability assessment criteria to guide urban regeneraton projects: two case studies in Ankara
Seyhan, Zeynep.; Elias Özkan, Soofia Tahira; Department of Architecture (2019)
Increasing awareness of climate change, loss of biodiversity and increase in environmental pollution due to the current trends of consumption in the urban areas have brought about a myriad of schemas to guide environmentally friendly urban developments. These schemes or Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment Tools (NSA Tools) provide a convenient way to establish healthier and sustainable cities. Meanwhile, Turkey is going through a rapid urban transformation process that is being questioned with respect to...
Sustainable buildings for healthier cities: assessing the co-benefits of green buildings in Japan
Balaban, Osman (2017-10-01)
High concentrations of people and economic activities in urban areas have strengthened the links between cities, health and the environment. Cities are not only responsible for environmental and health problems but also they hold the key for a greener economy and a sustainable future. Urban built environment is a policy field where appropriate policies and actions could yield significant human and ecological benefits. Among different elements of urban built environment, buildings deserve particular attentio...
Citation Formats
Ş. Kılkış, “Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios towards effective climate mitigation in urban systems,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 167, pp. 0–0, 2022, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85134320645&origin=inward.