Development of a climate risk assessment method for the provinces of Turkiye

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DUYGUBUTUN_THESIS.pdf

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2022-8-25

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Bütün Bayındır, Gülsün Duygu

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Climate change is disproportionately threatening vulnerable systems and amplifying existing risks. Considering the increasing impacts of climate change, assessing climate-related risks and identifying respective critical vulnerabilities have gained vital importance in addressing climate change. This thesis aims at examining the climate risk and vulnerability levels of provinces by conducting a climate risk and vulnerability assessment at the national scale provincial level to respond to the immediate climate challenges, as well as understanding to what extent mainstream spatial plans address the corresponding risk and vulnerability profiles. This research assesses climate risks and vulnerabilities of 81 provinces, also known as NUTS 3 regions in Turkey, by adopting the current risk-based framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which conceptualizes risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Secondary data are used in the statistical and spatial analyses via SPSS and ArcGIS software. Composite indexes are developed for heat wave, drought, forest fire, and flood risks and their determinants. According to the findings, although the highest climate risk prevails in Amasya and Tokat in the north, Mersin, Kahramanmaraş, in the south, Kayseri in the inner part, and Muş and Ağrı in the east part of Turkey, the overall climate risk assessment show that 36% of provinces are of high or very high levels of climate risk. Moreover, there is a lack of integration between climate policy-making and spatial planning in terms of addressing climate risks and vulnerabilities which results in mainstream spatial planning system at different scales could not address climate risks and vulnerabilities in Turkey. By determining particularly vulnerable provinces to climate risks, this assessment is considered to be instrumental for establishing the necessary linkages between climate policy-making and spatial planning, identifying the points of intervention and priority activities relevant for spatial planning, and giving input to policy prioritization and resource allocation.

Subject Keywords

Climate risk index, Climate vulnerability, Climate adaptation, Spatial planning, GIS

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99404

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

G. D. Bütün Bayındır, “Development of a climate risk assessment method for the provinces of Turkiye,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2022.