Potential impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in Türkiye

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2023-3-02

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Işık Çetin, İrem

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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Increasing the use of renewable energy is crucial in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. However, climate change will also affect weather-dependent renewable energy resources. Therefore, this study aims to identify the effects of climate change on the wind energy resources in Türkiye, which is in the Mediterranean hotspot, in the next century by using recent climate projections (CMIP6) with two different scenarios. The study includes four different results for wind resources in Türkiye. First, two multi-model ensemble techniques (random forest [RF] and multiple linear regression) are applied to 28 CMIP6 models by using ERA5, MERRA2, and observation data during the historical period (1980-2014). Secondly, the RF method is applied to future projections from CMIP6 models with two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) using extrapolated wind speeds to 100 m. Thirdly, mesoscale model outputs were used to identify the wind resource over the study area to avoid the low resolution of general circulation models, for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The results showed that climate change is likely to have an impact on wind energy resources in Türkiye. While there may be increases in wind speeds in the Aegean Sea (5.9%), Aegean Region (7.2%), Marmara Region (10%) and the Marmara Sea (14.7%) in summer, decreases was determined in winter season in Türkiye (-4.1%). In addition to analysis, energy yield estimation for two selected wind farms were calculated using mesoscale model outputs. Overall results were also evaluated within the framework of climate and energy policies.

Subject Keywords

Climate change, Wind resource, Wind energy, Climate modeling

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/102765

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

İ. Işık Çetin, “Potential impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in Türkiye,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2023.