GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT: A CASE STUDY IN A RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBOURHOOD IN ANKARA, TURKEY

2022-8-31
Çakır, İsmet Berke
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The rapid pace of urbanization, coupled with inadequate measures of government policies, has led to detrimental consequences for the built environment, the economics of daily urban life, and the life quality of city dwellers. Urban Heat Islands (UHI) exacerbates resource consumption and environmental footprint and threatens human health and comfort. New design and adaptation strategies are needed for urban settlements not only to lower the energy consumption and environmental impact of the built environment. Many factors influence UHI intensity, such as urban morphology, material selection, vegetation, and anthropogenic heat emissions. Therefore, it is essential to identify the most critical and “sensitive” parameters to understand the complex thermal conditions in urban environments under UHI effects. UHI effect can be calculated using simulation tools based on urban canopy models. Sensitivity analysis is a method that can extract valuable information about the model and increase model confidence under different degrees of uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis is also used to explicitly measure the impact of an input variable on the output. This paper presents a global sensitivity analysis of UHI increase in a residential district with a limited green area located in Ankara, Turkey. UHI is measured using Urban Weather Generator (UWG), an existing, validated tool that modifies existing annual time-series weather datasets using an urban canopy model. The parameters that potentially cause the highest UHI effect are identified by investigating the UHI Intensity metric. The seasonal impact on UHI effect is investigated by conducting simulations on average summer and winter weeks. Hourly and weekly parameter importance differences are observed by running sensitivity analyses on respective timeframes. A correlation matrix depicting the correlation between all the possible pairs of parameters is also shown.
Urban Heat Island, Sustainability, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Analysis
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99521
Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats
İ. B. Çakır, “GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT: A CASE STUDY IN A RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBOURHOOD IN ANKARA, TURKEY,” M.Arch. - Master of Architecture, Middle East Technical University, 2022.
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