Investigating the effects of climate change on the surface runoff potential over Kızılırmak basin

Barkış, Numan Burak
The aim of this study is to analyze the expected change in the surface runoff potential that will occur due to climate change in the Kızılırmak Basin until 2100. HBV hydrological model was run in this study to investigate the expected change in 3 sub-basins (SB 1535, SB 1541, and SB 1545) of Kızılırmak Basin. Total of 56 CMIP5-based GCM/RCM daily model datasets, downloaded from CORDEX EUR-11 at 0.110 spatial resolution and reflect RCP 8.5 emission scenario, were utilized. Among these model datasets, 10 of them were eliminated after a validation step performed using ERA5-Land precipitation and temperature dataset. Remaining 46 datasets are corrected for potential systematic biases in their mean values using ERA5-Land dataset-based historical temperature and precipitation simulations. Bias corrected datasets are utilized in all HBV model-based simulations. After the parameters of HBV were calibrated utilizing historical runoff observations, obtained parameter sets were used in future simulations to investigate the expected changes in the surface runoff potential of 3 sub-basins between the years of 2021 and 2099. The results show HBV model simulations have very high consistency with the past observations that NSE values for the daily simulations are 0.87, 0.66, and 0.81 for the three sub-basins listed above, respectively. Overall, the current surface runoff potential is expected to decrease in all 3 sub-basins between 2061 and 2099, where the rate of the decrease will be between 34% and 57% of the current multi-decadal averages.


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Citation Formats
N. B. Barkış, “Investigating the effects of climate change on the surface runoff potential over Kızılırmak basin,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.