IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE VARIABILITY OF DROUGHT CHARACTERISTICS OVER 25 BASINS OF TURKEY

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2022-3-11

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Ersoy, Nuri Erhan

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Analyzing the effects of drought and making accurate predictions for the future under changing climate conditions are of great importance in the agricultural, drinking water, industrial and ecosystem policies to be determined. The climate projection simulations generated over CORDEX domains are one the most popular datasets used today in climate change related studies. In this study impact of climate change over the variability of drought characteristics over 25 basins of Turkey were investigated using climate projection datasets run over CORDEX domain. Historical and future climate projections over Turkey from 56 GCM – RCM pairs at 0.11o spatial resolution for the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenarios were downloaded from CORDEX EUR-11. Accuracy assessments of historical simulations against ground observations were performed to eliminate the 14 poor performing models and retain 42 better performing models. Additionally, bias corrections of GCM-RCM model simulations for historical and future simulations were performed using ERA5-Land dataset over 25 basins separately. Future drought analyzes were performed using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated using historical and future projection datasets over each basin separately. Overall, the precipitation projections show a decreasing trend where the rate of the decline increases towards the last 30 years of the century. Consistent with this trend, the drought analysis made via SPI show the drought severity and lengths increase between 2071 and 2100 over all of the basins and entire Turkey. Accordingly, the last 30 years of the century are expected to show the most severe drought conditions that has not seen before over the region.

Subject Keywords

CORDEX, EUR-11, ERA5-LAND, CMIP5, SPI, DROUGHT, TURKEY

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https://hdl.handle.net/11511/96769

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

N. E. Ersoy, “IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE VARIABILITY OF DROUGHT CHARACTERISTICS OVER 25 BASINS OF TURKEY,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.